The Phoenix Mercury battled back from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit in Game 3 before ultimately falling to the Las Vegas Aces on an A’ja Wilson game-winner.
Despite the valiant comeback effort, my Aces vs. Mercury predictions expect the visiting team to break out the brooms tonight.
Find out more in my WNBA picks for Friday, October 10.
Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, with the game airing on ESPN.
Aces vs Mercury predictions
My Aces vs Mercury best bet: Aces -2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
The Las Vegas Aces have won six of their last seven games, covering the spread in five of them.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury had a chance to win Game 1 before letting a small fourth-quarter lead disappear in the waning seconds of the contest.
Las Vegas cruised to a double-digit victory in Game 2, and the Aces were on the brink of a blowout before Phoenix stormed back late in Game 3. Enter A’ja Wilson, who hit the biggest shot of the season to ice the game for Vegas.
Wilson is the best player in the W, and it’s not particularly close. On the brink of a third championship, I expect her to bring her A game in Game 4 and close out the series on the road.
She’s gotten excellent support from do-it-all guard Chelsea Gray and elite scoring option Jackie Young. Jewell Loyd — a two-time champ herself — has been great off the bench and shone in Game 3.
Phoenix’s leading scorer in the series, Satou Sabally, suffered a head injury late in Game 3, and her status for Game 4 is questionable. Her health concerns move the needle further in Las Vegas’ direction.
Aces vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces -2.5
A'ja Wilson Over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists
DeWanna Bonner Over 20.5 points + rebounds
Wilson has been masterful across her last five games, averaging 44.8 PRA in that span and hitting the Over on this line four times.
She’s done so in two straight, including Wednesday’s monster 34/14/4 performance. I’m not counting on her hot streak ending in Friday’s closeout contest.
With Satou Sabally banged up and potentially out for Game 4, DeWanna Bonner may need to handle a larger workload. She was tremendous on Wednesday, posting a season-high 25 points to go with 10 rebounds in 31 minutes off the bench.
Aces vs Mercury game predictions
Aces vs Mercury moneyline prediction
The tide has officially turned. After missing a golden opportunity to win Game 1, the Mercury lost Game 2 by double-digit points.
Even a frantic, last-minute comeback was stymied by the incomparable A'ja Wilson in Game 3, deflating any confidence they had to win even one game in this series.
Aces vs Mercury spread prediction
The Aces have had the Mercury's number, winning five straight games at Phoenix.
Aside from Wednesday's two-point victory, the Mercury lost their last four home games against the Aces by at least three points.
Aces vs Mercury Over/Under prediction
This has been a series devoid of defense, but once again, I'll take the Under.
I don't expect much of a fight out of Phoenix, and with Satou Sabally banged up, buckets could come at a premium for the home team.
Aces vs Mercury odds
Aces vs Mercury live odds
Aces vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -1.5 (-115) | Phoenix +1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -125 | Phoenix +105
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 (-110) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Aces vs Mercury trend
Las Vegas has won five straight games at Phoenix, winning four of them by at least three points. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, October 10, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Aces vs Mercury latest injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Mercury: Satou Sabally F (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
