A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are within touching distance of a third WNBA title in four years, and they can seal the deal against the Phoenix Mercury in Friday’s Game 4.
Having the best player on the court is the ultimate trump card, as we saw on Wednesday as Wilson drained a last-second game-winner, but I’m looking elsewhere for my top WNBA player props here, including a backs-to-the-wall effort from Alyssa Thomas.
Take a closer look at my WNBA picks for this October 10 matchup, as Phoenix tries to keep its season alive.
Aces vs Mercury props
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Thomas Over 25.5 points + assists |
-115 |
 Loyd Over 10.5 points |
+105 |
| Gray double-double |
+1000 |
Alyssa Thomas Over 25.5 points + assists
The Phoenix Mercury need their best player to dig even deeper, and that means Alyssa Thomas has to touch the ball on almost every possession.
She’s a lock to be out there for close to the full 40 minutes, and this combo Over buys into the idea that Thomas will embrace the challenge of putting Phoenix on her back.
Her scoring has dipped in this series, but Nate Tibbetts will surely urge his best player to be more aggressive. After taking 17+ shots in three of her four outings against the Minnesota Lynx, Thomas is only averaging 10 field-goal attempts in this series. That’s just not enough.
Then there’s the head injury that forced Satou Sabally off the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 3. If Sabally is ruled out with the quick turnaround for Game 4, that just pushes more volume toward Thomas.
Meanwhile, a healthy assists tally is a Thomas trademark, as she's dished 8+ dimes in five of her last six outings. Get ready for a monster stat line on Friday.
Jewell Loyd Over 10.5 points
It turns out that Jewell Loyd was saving some of her best basketball for the WNBA Finals. She averaged 11.2 points per game in the regular season – the lowest mark since her rookie season – but she’s turbo-charged the Las Vegas Aces off the bench in this series.
Loyd was an X-factor on Wednesday with 16 points, including four triples, and gave Las Vegas a crucial boost in Game 1 with 18 points. I’m wagering on another solid points total on Friday.
The opportunities will certainly be there. Loyd has logged 30+ minutes in all three Finals contests, and there’s a clear path to another dynamic outing here, especially with Becky Hammon cutting back the minutes for starters NaLyssa Smith and Kierstan Bell.
The Mercury have tried different defensive adjustments to counter A'ja Wilson’s offensive threat, but the hosts may revert to hard double teams with their season on the line. If they do, Loyd – who’s knocked down 2+ threes in five straight games – is a leading candidate to make Phoenix pay.
Chelsea Gray double-double
I’m taking a longer shot with this pick, but this feels like good value for Chelsea Gray, who’s had 10 assists in two of her last three games and double-digit points in five of six.
Gray’s performances have gone a little under the radar in these Finals, overshadowed by what Wilson and Jackie Young have delivered, but she’s playing heavy minutes in this postseason, and Game 4 could be her moment to shine brightest.
As long as Gray keeps getting her share of looks, the scoring piece of this prop looks secure. She’s finished with 9+ FGAs in four of her last five contests, while making her 3-pointers at a 42% clip in the playoffs.
So, her playmaking will make or break this wager, but there’s reason for optimism there, too, particularly as the Gray-Wilson connection has been firing on all cylinders lately, with Games 1 and 2 as Exhibits A and B.
As the Aces aim to avoid an almost inevitable drop-off after taking a 3-0 lead, Gray’s contributions across the box score could get Las Vegas over the line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
