The Phoenix Mercury will look to build on a three-game winning streak as they host the New York Liberty on Saturday afternoon.
New York covered just twice for bettors in July, and I like a healthy Phoenix team to beat the spread in my Liberty vs. Mercury predictions.
Read on to see my free WNBA picks for Saturday, August 1.
Liberty vs Mercury prediction
Liberty vs Mercury best bet: Mercury +3.5 (-115)
The New York Liberty have gone just 3-5 straight up in their last eight games, putting up a 1-7 ATS record in that span. Defense has been a critical issue for the Liberty, who have allowed an average of 99.4 ppg in their last seven games and rank a disappointing ninth in defensive rating (108.0).
The Phoenix Mercury have won (and covered) in three straight, and come into tonight's game fully healthy. I love the Mercury to cover at any underdog spread, and I'd also consider Phoenix on the moneyline if you're looking for a bigger return.
COVERS INTEL: The Mercury score 13.6% of their points off the fast break, the second-highest rate in the WNBA. That will help them get some cheap points off a Liberty team that allows 10.2 ppg on fast breaks.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay
The Liberty score, and the Liberty allow opponents to score. Unsurprisingly, this has led to New York now hitting the Over in seven straight games, and I see no reason why that trend will change today. Phoenix isn't exactly sturdy on defense, allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions, so I'm confident that this game will go Over the total.
I'm also banking on Alyssa Thomas hitting her PRA total at a combined 31.5. Thomas can go for a double-double in almost any game, even picking up a triple-double on July 22 against the Los Angeles Sparks. She's hit this PRA total in three of her last five games and should fill the stat sheet in a high-scoring matchup this afternoon.
Liberty vs Mercury SGP
- Mercury moneyline
- Over 176.5
- Alyssa Thomas Over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists
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Liberty vs Mercury player prop pick
DeWanna Bonner Over 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Veteran forward DeWanna Bonner is averaging 5.7 rebound per game this season for the Mercury, and has always been dependable on the boards, grabbing an average of 6.0 rebounds in her career.
But it's Bonner's recent performances I'm more interested in for this prop bet. Bonner has totaled 6+ rebounds in each of her last five games and in 10 of her last 11 outings. New York is a good rebounding team, but that's a trend that's far too strong to ignore. This is a must play at -135, and I think there's value all the way up to -200.
- Best bet: 15-20, -6.09 units
- SGP: 5-30, -1.21 units
- Player prop: 11-4, +6.53 units
Liberty vs Mercury odds
- Spread: New York -3.5 (-105) | Phoenix +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: New York -160 | Phoenix +135
- Over/Under: Over 176.5 (-110) | Under 176.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Mercury trend
The Liberty are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, August 1, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: Satou Sabally (day-to-day), Leonie Fiebich (Out)
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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