Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Aces Should Rebound vs Dressed-Up Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx put their five-game winning streak on the line tonight against the defending WNBA champions in the Las Vegas Aces.

Springing an upset on the Aces would dramatically change the conversation around the Lynx's uptick given all five of those wins came against the three worst teams in the WNBA. Can Minnesota keep it going against a competent foe? The WNBA odds don't paint an optimistic picture.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs Lynx on July 9.

Aces vs Lynx best odds

Aces vs Lynx picks and predictions

How much can really be gleaned from beating the Storm twice, the Mercury twice, and the Fever once? Obviously, the Minnesota Lynx were glad to win those games rather than lose them, but climbing up to .500 because of the WNBA cellar-dwellers is hardly a reason to think Minnesota is that good.

The last time it faced the Las Vegas Aces, the game was so lopsided that Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve turned to her bench at the start of the fourth quarter. Minnesota has gotten better in the last three weeks, but that was a 24-point game through three quarters. The Lynx have not gotten that much better.

This spread falling as low as -11.5 in favor of the Aces is an overreaction to a handful of fool’s gold wins. Four of Minnesota’s five straight wins came against two of the league’s three worst offenses. All five came against the league’s three worst defenses. The Fever have a bright future, and Jewell Loyd is still an underrated scorer, but there is nothing else positive to be said about Indiana, Seattle, and Phoenix presently.

Las Vegas’s defense is 10 points better, per 100 possessions, than the best of those three defenses (Seattle’s). Its offense is the best in the league by 5.4 points per 100 possessions, and 9.5 points better than the best of those three offenses (Indiana’s).

The Lynx will not be able to match that. They are better than three weeks ago, but not a dozen points better. This spread should not be within 15 points. Sportsbooks and bettors alike have boosted Minnesota too much because it beat the WNBA’s bottom-feeders.

My best bet: Aces -11.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Aces vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

This number opened as high as -15 on Saturday night before plummeting to -13.5 early Sunday morning and -12 across the board by mid-morning. There is no distinct reason for the three-point move aside from emboldened faith in the Lynx. With Kelsey Plum back in the lineup for the Aces after missing a game with illness, there should not be any unexpected absences tonight.

Minnesota did cover the spread in all five of its recent outright wins, doing so by an average of 6.9 points ahead of bookmakers’ expectations. And Las Vegas has lost ATS in its last two games, but one could also argue that should help the Aces refocus. Losing outright to the Wings on Friday may have reminded Las Vegas it is mortal and there is a title to defend.

The total climbed from 170 to 173 overnight before falling back to 171.5 on Sunday. The Lynx's win streak began with four consecutive Overs, partly thanks to Napheesa Collier cracking 30 points in three of the games. But remember, those were the league’s worst defenses. The Aces are far and away the best.

Aces vs Lynx betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Aces' last six Sunday games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Lynx.

Aces vs Lynx game info

Aces vs Lynx key injuries

Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Lynx: Jessica Shepard F (Out), Aerial Powers G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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