Only one team among the WNBA’s top half plays tonight, but a couple of upsets this week should make it clear no one can take a night off, not even the Atlanta Dream against the Golden State Valkyries tonight.
While that has the most intrigue in the standings, the other two games present more value in WNBA picks on Tuesday, July 29.
WNBA player prop bets for July 29
Reese u11.5 rebounds (+110)
Austin o15.5 points (+102)
Plum o2.5 threes (+105)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Angel Reese Under 11.5 rebounds (+110 at Caesars)
A more conservative approach could take this Under at 12.5 rebounds with juice set to -140 at DraftKings, but betting on Angel Reese to have one fewer rebound with a reward of 50 cents in the odds is unquestionably worthwhile.
In normal times, Reese’s rebounding prop is usually around 12.5, some particular opponents perhaps skewing it to 11.5 or 13.5. She has played just one game in the last two weeks while dealing with a back frustration, so these may not be normal times.
Reese’s return tonight could feature a subtle minutes limit. Given she has already fallen short of this prop in her last four games, a limit on Reese’s run tonight would provide distinct value.
Shakira Austin Over 15.5 points (+102 at FanDuel)
Angel Reese’s return could hurt this Chicago Sky defense overall, but let’s not try to filter those possibilities through only two weeks of missed action, Reese missing just three games in that stretch. Rather, acknowledging Reese’s return does not inherently mean the Washington Mystics’ best post presence should be doubted.
Even as the Sky’s defense improved in the last month — about two points better per 100 possessions than earlier in the season — it still sits at No. 10 in the WNBA since June 29. Not exactly stellar. In fact, rather wretched.
Shakira Austin has cleared this prop in three of her last four games, still scoring 14 points in that one exception as a blowout cut into her workload. When Austin has played at least 26 minutes, she has cleared this prop in her last five games and eight of her last nine.
Her offensive game is that reliable. If Austin plays extensively, she scores plenty. With Washington favored by 7.5, there may be doubt she will play extensively, but Reese’s return makes Chicago much more competitive. Austin should be needed into the fourth quarter.
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 threes (+105 at Caesars)
How is this still available at plus money? It makes no sense. Kelsey Plum has cleared this prop in seven straight games while shooting a spectacular 52.3% on 6.3 attempts from deep per game.
That alone should have this prop juiced to -110, at the absolute least. Raising the prop to 3.5 threes would be aggressive, but Over 2.5 should not still be plus money.
It is not juiced to +105 because of the Aces. Sure, they rank No. 3 in keeping opponents to only 22 3-point attempts per game, but they also rank No. 9 in opponents’ 3-point percentage, a whopping 34.1%.
Five of Plum’s last seven games have come against teams in the Top 4 in the WNBA in opposing 3-point percentage. Las Vegas might limit her looks, but they will be better looks than she's used to, not that she needs that edge.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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