Call this the “Cautious with Breanna Stewart” parlay. The New York Liberty superstar suffered a non-contact right leg injury on Saturday, and there is no timeline for her return.
The Liberty said an MRI revealed no significant injury, easing a pile of concern present after anyone pulls up in a non-contact moment, but there is also no timetable for Stewart’s return. New York head coach Sandy Brondello said on Monday that there is some uncertainty as to what the exact injury is.
Thus, the Liberty are likely to be cautious with Stewie, and in doing so, they will create value on New York tumbling down the standings in my WNBA picks.
2025 WNBA Playoff SGP same-game parlay (SGP)
No. 1 seed: Minnesota Lynx
No. 2 seed: Phoenix Mercury
No. 3 seed: Atlanta Dream
With Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones all in the lineup, the New York Liberty are tough to beat. Even as they have hit some lulls this season, that could be chalked up to knowing they will easily make the postseason, and that matters most.
However, look at how New York struggled without Jones while she recovered from two sprained ankles this season. The Liberty went just 8-5 outright and 4-8-1 against the spread in those two absences, the bulk of that coming as June turned to July, Jones missing a full month of action.
To be fair, Ionescu was also sidelined for one of those games, so let’s call it 8-4 outright and 4-7-1 ATS in games without Jones but with both Ionescu and Stewart available.
Compare that to the Liberty going 9-2 outright and 7-4 ATS with all three in the lineup. Already, New York lost at Dallas as an eight-point favorite on Monday in Stewart’s first missed game.
The Liberty are going to regress without one of their Big Three, logically so. They will not rush Stewart back, and New York will sacrifice seeding to assure postseason health.
But seeding will be sacrificed. New York plays the Minnesota Lynx not only on Wednesday but a total of four times in the next three weeks.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury are clearly the third-best team in the WNBA this season, only a game behind the Liberty in the standings. After them, one can debate if this bet makes the most sense with the Atlanta Dream or the Seattle Storm as the No. 3 seed, both two games behind New York, though Atlanta has one fewer loss. (Those two are 1-1 in head-to-head meetings this season, with two meetings remaining.)
Swapping in the Storm at No. 3 boosts this parlay to +2532. Personally, both versions will be bet, an aggressive approach expecting caution around Stewart.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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