The Phoenix Mercury should surge in coming weeks. Health can have that effect.
That will first show against the Atlanta Dream tonight, a team that the WNBA has done no favors for with a back-to-back immediately following the All-Star Break.
My Dream vs. Mercury predictions trust this expected surge. You should trust it for a couple months.
Let's break down why you should in my WNBA picks for Wednesday, July 23.
Dream vs Mercury predictions
My Dream vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Phoenix Mercury had a vision entering this season: Bringing in Satou Sabally’s scoring and Alyssa Thomas’ playmaking should combine perfectly with Kahleah Copper’s all-around abilities. This vision made sense.
But the trio have played just six of 22 games together, undone by a knee worry with Copper, a sprained ankle recently for Sabally and a calf stressor bothering Thomas.
Fortunately, the All-Star Break finally has the three expected to play together again.
When they have played together, Phoenix has been notably better.
Across the entire season, the Mercury’s net rating has been +4.9, boosted by a defensive rating of 98.5 combined with a modest offensive rating of 103.4.
In a seven-game stretch that included the six games the trio played together (Copper missed one of the seven) — and note these seven games influence the season-long ratings — the Mercury’s net rating was +8.3, boosted by an offensive rating of 111.1 combined with a modest defensive rating of 102.8.
That offensive rating would be the best in the WNBA across the entire season by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.
With the Atlanta Dream’s defense only middling and on the second night of a back-to-back, the Mercury’s offense should run up the score tonight.
Dream vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -7.5
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 assists
Satou Sabally Over 6.5 rebounds
Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 3-pointers
Never make a bet solely because of past results. That is a terrible way to approach this industry, and anyone relying entirely on trends in bets is not putting in the proper work.
But looking at a specific set of past results that have been underappreciated can provide betting value moving forward, like looking at those six games that Sabally, Thomas and Copper have played together.
Thomas cleared this prop in four of those six games, averaging 10.8 assists in those six games.
Sabally took care of this prop in three of those six games, averaging 7.2 rebounds in those six games.
Copper thrived on this prop in five of those six games, the last five of them, averaging 2.2 threes in those six games.
Dream vs Mercury odds
Dream vs Mercury live odds
Dream vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +6.5 | Phoenix -6.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +215 | Phoenix -345
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Dream vs Mercury trend
Four of Phoenix’s six games with all of Sabally, Thomas and Copper available went Over their totals. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Mercury.
How to watch Dream vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona Family 3TV, PeachtreeTV |
Dream vs Mercury latest injuries
Dream: Rhyne Howard (knee) out.
Mercury: Monique Akoa Makani (concussion) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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