UFC Fight Night Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC Saudi Arabia’s main card features a bantamweight bout between unranked contenders Said Nurmagomedov and Vinicius Oliveira.

Current UFC odds have Nurmagomedov listed as a moderate betting favorite at -170 via BET99, while Oliveira returns at +135.

Here are my free UFC Saudi Arabia: Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveira predictions for today’s event at anb Arena.

Nurmagomedov vs Oliveira prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Nurmagomedov ML (-160 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Nurmagomedov by decision (+175 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Vinicius Oliveira found success on the regional circuit before earning a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. He earned a UFC contract with a statement first-round TKO victory over Victor Madrigal.

Oliveira followed that win with a flying knee knockout of Benardo Sopaj, a victory that earned Oliveira $100,000 for performance and fight of the night. He was then tasked to go against Ricky Simon, winning once again as a 2/1 underdog.

That said, now seems like the time to sell high on Oliveira, who may not be as strong of a fighter as the beginning of his tenure in the UFC suggests. Let’s look at these three wins more closely.

First, Madrigal has never fought in a big promotion and has lost four times on the regional circuit. Second, Sopaj was making his UFC debut, and the fight was 19-19 on all three scorecards entering the third round (which, to be fair, Oliveira won definitively).

Lastly, Simon has lost his last three fights and is on a steep decline. He recently suffered his fourth non-MMA loss (grappling) to Joao Miyao at Karata Combat.

The point being, I’m not sold Oliveira is as good as his recent three-fight win streak suggests, and I think Nurmagomedov is rightfully priced as the betting favorite.

Best bet analysis
I’m not a fan of Nurmagomedov’s -170 moneyline odds, but I see value in the method-of-victory market. 

The longshot play here is clearly the KO/TKO prop, but the odds aren’t appealing enough for me. Nurmagomedov has hardly ever demonstrated one-touch power, while Oliveira has been knocked out just once over the past six years.

That just leaves the submission and decision props, with the latter being rightfully priced as the most likely outcome at +175. Nurmagomedov has a knack for locking in a guillotine choke, but Oliveira has never tapped across 24 professional MMA bouts.

With this in mind, I believe Nurmagomedov is going to show the judges more over three rounds en route to a decision victory. Nurmagomedov has won seven of his nine UFC bouts, and I think that experience will put him a step ahead of Oliveira.

If this fight goes three rounds, which the odds suggest it will, then Nurmagomedov’s experience will likely give him another edge.

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Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira odds

Method of Victory	Nurmagomedov	Oliveira
To win outright	-170	+135
To win by KO/TKO	+675	+375
To win by decision	+175	+350
To win by submission	+365	+2000
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 2-1.

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Said Nurmagomedov vs Vinicius Oliveira tale of the tape

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