Leon Edwards returns to London and hopes to get back in title contention with a win over young contender Sean Brady in the main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card.
UFC odds favor Brady at -160, but my Edwards vs. Brady predictions see an upset across the pond on Saturday.
Edwards vs Brady prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Edwards moneyline (+135 at BET99)
- My best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-220 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Before losing his title to Belal Muhammad at UFC 309, Leon Edwards was on a 12-fight win streak where he beat some of the best fighters in the division until he won and successfully defended his title.
As a result of Muhammad dropping him on his head nine times in their last fight, that has all gone out the window as oddsmakers suggest Edwards is going to go from champ to chump after one fight as he is the underdog against Brady.
The main reason why Sean Brady is favored is because of the notion Edwards struggles against grapplers, and that’s the one thing Brady excels at.
He has an excellent wrestling-based offense and is a BJJ black belt, scoring 3.49 takedowns per fight. He also has a positive strike differential despite his average striking ability.
Brady took a bad loss to Muhammad — getting knocked in two rounds in 2022 — but bounced back against washed versions of Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns to go on a two-fight win streak.
While there’s the notion Edwards struggles against grapplers, he managed to hold his own against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, as well as coming on strong in the later rounds against Muhammad.
If anything, Edwards’ struggles come from starting too slow at times, and his precision striking means he usually has a low striking output in favor of landing more meaningful blows.
I can see Brady getting the jump on Edwards early on, but this is a five-round fight, and Edwards won’t be facing the same kind of resistance he saw against Muhammad.
This will also be Brady’s second five-round fight and his first real test since Muhammad knocked him out, and that knockout came because Brady couldn’t get his wrestling going at all.
One thing about Edwards is he doesn’t waste his strikes, and an overzealous shoot-in attempt by Brady could lead him to absorb punishment. It’ll be close, but Edwards should be able to avoid the mat and do the better work in the stand-up to win a close fight.
Best bet analysis
Edwards is used to going the distance and has never lost by submission in his career, and Brady is by no means an early finisher, with all his submission wins in the UFC coming in the second and third rounds.
While I’m picking Edwards to edge Brady and overcome the style disadvantage, the best bet to make is the fight going Over 4.5 rounds.
Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Edwards | Brady |
| To win outright | +130 | -155 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +675 | +875 |
| To win by decision | +250 | +145 |
| To win by submission | +1650 | +405 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 3-22.
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Leon Edwards vs Sean Brady tale of the tape
| Edwards | Brady | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 22-4 | Record | 17-1 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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