UFC 327 takes place this Saturday from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The headline event between striking specialists Carlos Ulberg and Jiri Prochazka will be a banger, and there's no way it goes the scheduled 25 minutes.
While UFC odds in the "fight to go the distance" markets are often heavily juiced, we can get value by putting them together in a parlay. Here is my best UFC 327 parlay and free betting picks for Saturday, April 11.
Best UFC 327 parlay picks
Gastelum vs Luque Fight to go the Distance - Yes
Gamrot vs Ribovics Fight to go the Distance - Yes
Reyes vs Walker Fight to go the Distance - No
Prochazka vs Ulberg Fight to go the Distance - No
Gastelum vs Luque Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-110)
Kelvin Gastelum is known for his granite jaw, but he also isn't much of a finisher himself. Eight of his last 10 fights went the distance, and the only two that didn't were submission losses. Given that he's a -300 favorite against Vicente Luque, that's unlikely to happen here.
Luque is on the backend of his career and has been gun-shy since suffering a brain hemorrhage against Geoff Neal in 2022. Expect another tentative performance from him at UFC 327.
Gamrot vs Ribovics Fight to go the Distance - Yes (-210)
Esteban Ribovics is a high-volume striker but has a tough time knocking out quality opponents. Five of his six fights in the UFC have gone the distance, with a bout against glass cannon Terrence McKinney the only one to end by stoppage.
Ribovics is also tough as nails and won't get finished easily, especially against a fighter like Mateusz Gamrot who relies on wrestling and control.
Six of Gamrot's last eight fights have gone the distance. The only exceptions were an injury win against Rafael Fiziev and a loss to the best submission artist in UFC history, Charles Oliveira.
Reyes vs Walker Fight to go the Distance - No (-380)
Both of these light heavyweights are dangerous strikers with glass chins. Dominick Reyes' last seven fights have ended inside of two rounds. Meanwhile, 12 of Johnny Walker's previous 15 bouts ended before the third round.
Walker has been turned into a meme with how many times he's been slept like a cartoon character. That said, he's still capable of catching an opponent as he did in his last fight, and Reyes has been badly knocked out in his last four defeats.
Prochazka vs Ulberg Fight to go the Distance - No (-340)
Six of Carlos Ulberg's last eight fights ended by stoppage. He has had recent decisions against Jan Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir, but those guys are also counter-strikers, which led to highly technical fights.
The hyper-aggressive Jiri Prochazka is the complete opposite. He fights with relentless pressure from the opening bell and wants to go out on his shield. His last 16 fights (including all of his bouts in the promotion) have ended inside the distance.
He'll either take off Ulberg's head with a wild combo, or he'll be caught by a crisp counter himself.
Not intended for use in MA.
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