UFC 321 Predictions, Picks & Odds: UFC 321 Prelims Best Bets

UFC 321 is headlined by the first defense of Tom Aspinall’s heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane and the vacant women’s strawweight title match between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. The preliminary card features Abdul-Kareen Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo trying to bounce back from previous defeats, a certifiable bruiser between middleweights Ikram Aliskerov and Park Jun Yong, and a potential upset in Jose Delgado vs. Nathaniel Wood.

Here are my best free betting picks and predictions for Saturday, October 21.

UFC 321 prelim picks and predictions

Fight 1
• Prediction: Al-Selwady moneyline (-110)
• Best Bet: Al-Selwady by decision (+245)

Fight 2
• Prediction: Aliskerov moneyline (-230)
• Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-125)

Fight 3
• Prediction: Wood moneyline (+120)
• Best Bet: Wood moneyline (+120)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

UFC 321 prelim odds and picks

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo fight odds

Method of Victory	Al-Selwady	Camilo
To win outright	-110	-115
To win by KO/TKO	+510	+185
To win by decision	+250	+510
To win by submission	+600	+1050
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-23.

Former PFL standout Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady should have the crowd firmly behind him in Abu Dhabi, and Matheus Camilo’s weak takedown defense and tentative striking will only make his job easier. Camilo can be dangerous at range with his counterstriking, but he’s not busy or accurate enough to keep Al-Selwady honest. Once the distance closes, Al-Selwady’s pace, strength, and top control will dictate the action.

While both men enter off losses, Al-Selwady’s overall game looks more complete. He’s the more disciplined fighter, better in transitions, and capable of maintaining pressure without burning himself out. Expect Al-Selwady to repeatedly force Camilo against the cage, score takedowns, and pile up control time en route to a clear decision win.

Prediction: Al-Selwady moneyline (-110 at BET99)
Best Bet: Al-Selwady by decision (+245 at BET99)

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun Yong fight odds

Method of Victory	Aliskerov	Yong
To win outright	-230	+180
To win by KO/TKO	+215	+730
To win by decision	+210	+540
To win by submission	+540	+730
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-23.

This middleweight matchup between two high-action strikers has fireworks written all over it. Ikram Aliskerov is a bruiser who fights at a relentless pace, landing an impressive 7.76 significant strikes per minute, and all four of his UFC wins have been first-round stoppages. Park Jun Yong doesn’t take long to turn a fight into a phonebooth brawl, but his slower hands and high guard make him an easy target for Aliskerov’s straight punches and heavy combinations.

Aliskerov is also the better overall athlete and could mix in wrestling if needed, especially when one considers Park’s terrible takedown defense. With Park likely marching forward and trying to out-tough him, Aliskerov’s cleaner boxing, tighter combinations, and heavier hands should take over quickly. The pick is Aliskerov, with the under 2.5 rounds as my best bet.

Prediction: Aliskerov moneyline (-230 at BET99)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-125 at BET99)

Jose Delgado vs. Nathaniel Wood fight odds

Method of Victory	Delgado	Wood
To win outright	-150	+120
To win by KO/TKO	+245	+640
To win by decision	+350	+270
To win by submission	+550	+875
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-23.

Nathaniel Wood feels overlooked here. Jose Delgado is explosive and dangerous early, but he’s also untested at this level, and the short nature of his fights might be masking a conditioning issue. Wood is a diligent striker with good footwork and head movement, and timely level changes, and he’s good enough to survive the blitz and potentially bring those concerns to the surface.

Delgado’s average fight time in the UFC is just around three minutes, and if Wood can weather the first round, this fight tilts heavily in his favor. His striking defense and counterpunching should help him pick apart Delgado once the early storm passes. My best bet is for Wood to win straight up.

Prediction: Wood moneyline (+120 at BET99)
Best Bet: Wood moneyline (+120 at BET99)

Pages related to this topic