UFC Freedom 250 Win Probabilities

Prediction: Topuria to win
-525 at Kalshi

Gaethje is as tough as a rusty nail. He brutalized Paddy Pimblett, but it wasn't too long ago that he was picked apart violently by Max Holloway.

Topuria presents an even more dangerous stylistic challenge. Gaethje may be able to lure lesser opponents into a brawl, but Topuria is too refined and too patient to fall into that trap. 

Prediction: Ciryl Gane to win
-115 at Kalshi

Alex Pereira has made a living off breaking opponents who can’t handle his size and striking prowess (11 KO). But the question is, how much will that power translate in his first heavyweight bout?

Ciryl Gane has faltered a few times when attempting to reach the top of the mountain, but all of his lackluster performances can be attributed to his questionable grappling skills.

Pereira will look to do what he does best: try to pressure forward and line up Gane with a heavy shot, but Gane’s historically good durability — coupled with him being the real heavyweight — gives him enough of an edge for me to back him up to -150.

Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Danny Howard

Prediction: Blaydes to win by decision
-425 at Kalshi

Aiemann Zahabi enters on a seven-fight winning streak that is less impressive than it should be. Many of those victories came against aging opponents he simply outworked.

Against O'Malley, he'll be giving up advantages in height, reach, speed, power, and striking accuracy against a former champion in his prime.

Zahabi isn't a dominant grappler, which will allow O'Malley to control the fight from start to finish.

Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis

Danny Howard

Prediction: Josh Hokit to win
-450 at Kalshi

Josh Hokit just established his credentials as an elite heavyweight after his grueling win over Curtis Blaydes.

The power, durability, and movement would be a tough mix for Lewis in his prime. Lewis tends to get stopped when he’s outworked, and his declining mobility essentially leaves a perfect punch to be his only path to victory.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler

Chris Faria

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy to win
-750 at Kalshi

This bout should not be particularly close, and the odds rightfully reflect that.

29-year-old Mauricio Ruffy is considered one of the top rising stars in the lightweight division, with 12 of his 13 professional wins coming by way of knockout.

The Fighting Nerds product lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute, and he’ll be facing a 40-year-old Michael Chandler, who is not the most difficult target to hit.

Chandler absorbs 4.52 significant strikes per minute, with a differential of -0.48. He doesn’t make much of an effort to avoid damage, with a significant strike defense of just 43% (Ruffy: 59%).

While Chandler has plenty of heart, the American has often been criticized for a lack of fight IQ, and that’ll get him in big trouble against a younger, faster, harder-hitting opponent like Ruffy.

I’m not laying -750 on anyone in a fist fight, but this could be a case where Chandler wins the first few minutes and a live bet on Ruffy becomes a lot more palatable.

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy to win
-350 at Kalshi

Nickal rebounded from his dominant loss to de Ridder with a stoppage over Rodolfo Viera, but he’ll need to get back to his wrestling to avoid another setback.

Daukaus ended a three-year layoff with two straight finishes and could give Nickal trouble if he can keep the fight standing.

Nickal should resort to what works best for him, get the fight to the ground, and control with ease as he continues his development.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

Chris Faria

Prediction: Steve Garcia to win
+120 at Kalshi

This is a big step up in competition for Steve Garcia on paper, who is ranked just No. 9 in the featherweight division despite picking up seven straight wins.

It’s also a step down for No. 2-ranked Diego Lopes, who is 1-2 over his last three bouts, with both losses coming in championship fights against Alexander Volkanovski.

However, this matchup will probably be closer than their rankings suggest.

Garcia has emerged as one of the best knockout artists in the division with six KOs in his last seven fights, while boasting an impressive Expected Round Percentage of 70% and a significant strike differential of +3.27 per minute. By comparison, Lopes comes in at just 45% and -0.73 in those respective categories.

Lopes is clearly the more experienced fighter, but he’s shown a willingness to sit in the pocket and trade, and that’s exactly the type of fight that suits Garcia’s game.

Garcia is playable at +120, but if the line creeps closer to +140 by fight night, you’re getting great value on a very live dog.

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