We’ve got an intriguing flyweight matchup on the main card at UFC 319 in Chicago's United Center as Kai Asakura makes his second UFC appearance vs. veteran Tim Elliott tonight.
Asakura comes into the fight as a big -340 favorite in the UFC odds despite his loss against champion Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC debut.
I’ll break down why the Japanese star should get the job done in my Elliott vs. Asakura predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, August 16.
Elliott vs Asakura prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Asakura moneyline (-340 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight to not go the distance (-105 at BET99)
Fight analysis
The hype for Kai Asakura was real when he made his UFC debut last December, as he got thrown straight to the wolves in a flyweight championship bout vs. Alexandre Pantoja. Unsurprisingly, the champ locked in a rear naked choke in the second round.
Despite the loss, oddsmakers and bettors alike are still high on Asakura as he comes into UFC 319 as a -325 favorite vs. Tim Elliott, who hits back at +240.
While Asakura only has one UFC bout under his belt, the former Rizin champion has fought plenty of high-level competition over his 11-year career in Japan, including a pair of bouts (one win, one loss) against current No. 6-ranked flyweight Manuel Kape.
Asakura actually looked dangerous early against Pantoja, landing his signature knee up the middle in the opening 10 seconds and generally holding his own in the striking exchanges.
The Japanese star is aggressive and confident on the feet, which can make him susceptible to being counterpunched. However, that’s not much of a worry against Saturday’s opponent. The 38-year-old Elliott has not had a KO win since 2011, though he is a threat on the ground, as his most recent win came by way of submission.
Elliott is no Pantoja, though, and he hasn’t been inside the octagon in over 600 days. The veteran has also had a couple of knee surgeries for a torn ACL and meniscus, which may explain why he’s been inactive.
Elliott’s takedowns and submissions are a genuine threat, but I have to lean towards the younger, faster, more active fighter in Asakura.
Best bet analysis
You don’t see many knockout artists at flyweight, but Asakura’s wild style is definitely conducive to early finishes — 10 of his last 13 bouts have ended inside the distance.
On the other side of the octagon, Elliott has had each of his last two fights end before the bell. However, he’s only been knocked out once in his pro career — way back in 2009. Age catches up to everyone, though, and Asakura certainly has the speed and power to buck that trend.
You can find Asakura to win by KO at +155 (and Elliott by sub at +950), but I think the safe play is to bet on this fight finishing inside the distance at -105.
Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Elliott | Asakura |
| To win outright | +255 | -340 |
| To win by KO/TKO/DQ | +1500 | +150 |
| To win by decision/technical decision | +540 | +135 |
| To win by submission | +950 | +1800 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 8-16.
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Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura tale of the tape
| Elliott | Asakura | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 20-13-1 | Record | 21-5 |
| 3 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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