UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes Odds, Picks & Predictions

Tom Aspinall puts his interim heavyweight title on the line against Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event for UFC 304 this Saturday.

This is a rematch from two years ago when Aspinall lost after suffering a knee injury just 15 seconds into the bout. He's expected to redeem himself for his only defeat in the octagon with UFC odds installing him as a -370 favorite this time around.

Here are my best free Aspinall vs. Blaydes predictions for July 27 from the Co-op Live in Manchester, England.

Aspinall vs Blaydes prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Aspinall moneyline (-370 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Aspinall by KO/TKO (-160 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Curtis Blaydes is an impressive 13-3 in his last 16 fights. However, he's been exposed by power-punchers since all three of those defeats were ugly knockouts at the hands of Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, and Sergei Pavlovich. That's bad news against Tom Aspinall, who is one of the hardest hitters in MMA and combines death-touch power with fast hands and strong technical boxing. 

That injury loss to Blaydes is the only time that Aspinall has tasted defeat in the octagon, having gone 7-1 in the UFC with six first-round finishes. Aspinall is coming off a fight in November when he showed up on short notice to starch Pavlovich in under two minutes and claim the interim belt. Ironically, Blaydes' previous defeat came against Pavlovich last year when he was knocked out in the opening round after getting out-struck 36-13. 

Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers at heavyweight and he averages a whopping 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he needs to set up his takedowns by getting his striking going and he won't be able to do that against Aspinall, who has great lateral mobility and will be able to land heavy shots when Blaydes tries to close the distance. 

Even if Blaydes is able to take this fight to the mat, Aspinall has terrific grappling and BJJ ability that he can use to reverse position, get back to his feet, or pull off a submission. Aspinall's combination of speed, skill, and power will be too much for Blaydes here.

Best best analysis

Relying on his wrestling is Blaydes' best path to victory but he's recently shown a tendency to try and stand with his opponents with just one takedown attempt in his last four fights. That's not a good idea in this matchup since he's a basic striker who throws predictable 1-2 combination and doesn't have much foot speed. 

He also tends to leave himself open to shots up the middle when he does eventually shoot for takedowns. Regardless of whether Blaydes strikes or attempts takedowns, he'll be prone to getting caught by Aspinall, who is a high-volume striker and has eight knockouts in his last 10 wins.

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Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes odds

Method of Victory	Aspinall	Blaydes
To win outright	-400	+295
To win by KO/TKO	-160	+500
To win by decision	+1,200	+900
To win by submission	+400	+2,900
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 7-26.

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Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes tale of the tape

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