Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns is the co-main event for UFC 288 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
This five-round fight could serve as a welterweight title eliminator, with Burns looking to get another shot at the championship after coming up short in 2021. UFC odds opened with Burns as a -180 favorite, but money has come in on the underdog. That's resulted in Burns slimming to -125, and shifting Muhammad to +105.
Here are my best free picks and predictions for Muhammad vs. Burns for Saturday, May 6.
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns fight odds
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Belal Muhammad | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +500 | +410 |
| To win by Points | +220 | +290 |
| To win by Submission | +1,300 | +500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on May 3, 2023.
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns betting preview
Belal Muhammad is the No. 4 ranked welterweight contender, and he's chomping at the bit for a title shot after winning eight fights in a row. In his previous bout last October, he knocked out Sean Brady in the second round to earn his first finish and fight bonus since 2019.
The 34-year-old has leveled up his game since his previous loss more than four years ago. He proved that last April when he defeated Vicente Luque by decision to get revenge for a knockout loss to Luque near the beginning of their UFC careers.
Muhammad is at his best when he can grind down opponents with his wrestling, clinch work, and cardio.
Gilbert "Durinho" Burns accepted this fight on short notice after defeating Jorge Masvidal by decision less than a month ago. He's 9-2 in his last 11 trips to the octagon, and his only defeats during that span came in highly-competitive bouts against Khamzhat Chimaev and former champ Kamaru Usman (with Burns a significant underdog for both bouts).
The 36-year-old fought at lightweight earlier in his career, but has looked more explosive and durable since moving up to 170 pounds. With a background as a world-class BJJ practitioner, Burns is an elite grappler, but he's also a dangerous striker with power in his punches and kicks.
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns tale of the tape
| Belal Muhammad | Gilbert Burns | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 22-3 (5 KO) | Record | 22-5 (6 KO) |
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Burns ML
It's fair to question how worn down Burns might be considering this will be his third fight this year, and that he went the distance against Masvidal just four weeks ago. However, Muhammad might have even less energy since he's been fasting during daylight hours for Ramadan.
Muhammad requested this fight to take place at a catchweight of 185 pounds, which Burns declined. It won't be easy for him to adequately refuel and rehydrate after cutting for the weigh-in on Friday, which could make a big difference with this fight scheduled for five rounds.
Muhammad's best chance of victory will be using his wrestling ability not to take Burns to the mat, but to pin him against the cage. Taking Burns down is not only tough to do, but it would open Muhammad up to submission attempts. Whereas if he traps him against the cage, he can look to wear Burns down.
That said, if the brutally strong Khamzhat Chimaev was unable to implement his elite wrestling against Burns, it's unlikely that the smaller Muhammad will be able to.
Muhammad displayed some impressive hands in his victory against Brady, but he's generally not the most explosive or accurate striker. Burns is the superior kickboxer and has more knockout power in his hooks and body kicks.
Prediction: Burns ML (-125 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Burns ML
If you like Muhammad to pull off the upset, it makes sense to back him to win by decision at +220. While he knocked out Brady his last time out, he isn't a finisher, and a whopping 11 of his previous 13 fights have gone the distance.
Muhammad doesn't have the power to starch Burns, and he's certainly not going to submit a guy who has won gold at the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Meanwhile, Durinho has more paths to victory and is capable of winning this bout by points, KO/TKO, or sub. I'll stick with backing Burns on the simple moneyline bet, and consider myself fortunate to get it at -125 instead of the opening number.
Pick: Burns ML (-125 at DraftKings)
