Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya will face off tonight in a rematch for the middleweight championship at UFC 287.
Pereira knocked out Adesanya this past November to snatch the title from the five-time defending champ. Adesanya was a -175 favorite for that bout, and he remains the favorite now despite that loss and two previous defeats against Pereira in the kickboxing ring.
However, UFC odds have shortened for the rematch, with Adesanya at -140 and Pereira coming back at +120.
Here are my best free betting picks for the main event of UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 on Saturday, April 8.
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya fight odds
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +195 | +370 |
| To win by Points | +600 | +190 |
| To win by Submission | +2,200 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on April 8, 2023.
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya betting preview
Alex Pereira has logged only eight career MMA bouts, including just four in the UFC. However, he's built up an extensive kickboxing resume as a two-division champ at Glory and a pair of victories over Adesanya.
Those kickboxing wins against Adesanya were a big reason why he was given a title shot, but Pereira proved he deserved it with a fifth-round knockout of Izzy.
Pereira is massive for this weight class, and that size comes with incredible power. The same left hook that handed Adesanya his first career knockout loss also starched Sean Strickland and put current UFC light heavyweight Dustin Jacoby to sleep in Glory. However, he's more than just a power puncher and is very polished and accurate with his striking.
Prior to his loss against Pereira, Adesanya was undefeated in the UFC’s middleweight division, recording 12 straight victories at 185 pounds. His only other defeat in MMA came against Jan Blachowicz when he moved up to 205 pounds to unsuccessfully challenge for the light heavyweight belt.
However, Adesanya has suffered those two previous defeats against Pereira in kickboxing, and he'll try to snap his three-fight losing streak to Poatan on Saturday.
The first loss was a very close decision that could have gone either way, and his final defeat at Glory of Heroes came in a similar fashion to their clash last November. Adesanya seemed to outpoint his opponent through the first two rounds before a left hook caught him for his first-ever knockout loss.
The Last Stylebender is arguably UFC's best technical striker, and he uses his length, quickness, kicking ability, and deceptive power to devastating effect.
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya tale of the tape
| Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 79 inches | Reach | 80 inches |
| 7-1 (6 KO) | Record | 23-2 (15 KO) |
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Alex Pereira
Adesanya perhaps should have been given the decision in the first fight between these two, and he seemed to hold the upper hand until getting knocked out in the last two affairs. However, he's still 0-3 against Pereira in combat sports. and it's tough to justify backing him as a favorite here.
Pereira does an excellent job of checking the leg kicks Adesanya likes to use. With more experience, he should do a better job of defending against Adesnaya's subpar grappling, which surprisingly led to him being controlled on the mat in the third round. Don't forget, he's still evolving as an MMA fighter and will only get better at fighting with four-ounce gloves and defending takedowns.
Sure, Adesanya's footwork and technique have led to him tagging Pereira in the past. But Poatan's chin can weather those attacks, and he possesses the power to end the fight at any moment.
That power is the ultimate equalizer in a fight with Adesanya trying to survive for 25 minutes, making this bout a 50/50 matchup. I'm therefore leaning toward Pereira at plus money.
Prediction: Pereira ML (+120 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Fight to go the distance - No
While the last fight went to the fifth round, a finish seemed almost inevitable. I'm not expecting this bout to go the distance either.
Adesanya is aware that this outing might be his final chance to avenge his loss to Paotan. "This is my last shot and I'm gonna give it all I got," he said recently. That should make him fight with more urgency than we've seen since he was a rising star in the promotion.
Don't forget that Izzy staggered Pereira at the end of the opening round in their previous matchup. He also managed to get a standing-eight count against him in their last kickboxing bout.
As for Pereira, he's a knockout threat, and his pressure and reach will make it tough for Adesanya to stay on the outside with his typical distance striking. He's also brimming with confidence and will go on the attack regardless of Adesanya's dangerous counter-striking ability.
Someone is getting finished on Saturday no matter who wins.
Pick: Fight to go the distance - No (-122 at FanDuel)
