Petr Yan vs. Sean O'Malley is on a stacked main card for UFC 280 betting on Saturday.
This should be a terrific matchup between the former bantamweight champ in Yan and one of the most hyped fighters in the promotion in "Suga" Sean O'Malley.
UFC betting odds opened with Yan as a massive -410 favorite but money has poured in on the underdog, and that line has slimmed to -275 with O'Malley coming back at +225.
Here are my best free UFC betting picks and predictions for Yan vs. O'Malley on October 22, from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.
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Yan vs O'Malley fight odds
Yan vs O'Malley method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Petr Yan | Sean O'Malley |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +390 | +500 |
| To win by Points | -105 | +420 |
| To win by Submission | +1,800 | +3,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on October 19, 2022.
Yan vs O'Malley picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Yan vs O'Malley betting preview
Petr Yan is coming off a split-decision loss to Aljamain Sterling in April, where he had entered as a -450 favorite. Yan had previously dominated Sterling in their first matchup in 2021 but lost his belt after being disqualified for throwing an illegal knee late in the fifth round.
Those defeats to Sterling are Yan's only two losses in the promotion, with the Russian compiling an 8-2 record inside the octagon and boasting title-fight victories against Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen.
The 29-year-old has some of the best technical boxing in the UFC, with polished footwork, steady volume, accurate combinations, and power in his hands.
Sean O'Malley is the No. 11 ranked bantamweight contender. His previous bout ended in a disappointing no-contest after an eye poke from O'Malley rendered Pedro Munhoz unable to continue.
Prior to that fight, Suga had gone 8-1 in the promotion and had reeled off three-straight knockout wins since losing to Marlon Vera in 2020.
The 28-year-old is a long, athletic, and explosive striker who loves to push the pace. He prefers to keep things standing up, where he can throw punches and kicks from a variety of angles.
Yan vs O'Malley tale of the tape
| Petr Yan | Sean O'Malley | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 134 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 16-3-0 (7 KO) | Record | 15-1-0 (1 NC, 11 KO) |
Yan vs O'Malley UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Yan ML
I'll preface this pick by saying that there is certainly a path to victory for O'Malley in this one and that his opening price of +300 was a bit disrespectful. Yan has a tendency to start slow as he looks to find his rhythm and figures out his opponent's moves. Eventually, his volume, pressure, and pace allow him to take over in the later rounds.
While that's a recipe for success in five-round main events and championship fights, it could prove costly in a three-round matchup like this. It's certainly plausible that O'Malley wins the first round with his volume, and then he'd only have to steal one of the next two rounds and avoid getting knocked out to pull off the victory.
That said, Yan is a bit too well-rounded for him. The Russian's wrestling, boxing, and cardio are on a different level than O'Malley, plus his striking defense will be able to neutralize Suga's main advantage of kicks.
With money coming in on O'Malley and Yan's odds shortening, I would be willing to pay his moneyline price at anything -250 or better.
Prediction: Yan moneyline (-250 at FanDuel)
Best bet: Yan by points
Dana White seemed to be bringing O'Malley along slowly with matchups against cupcakes, and the two fights where he has faced ranked foes have been inconclusive. His defeat to Vera may have been due to a fluke leg injury, but it was a loss nonetheless. While O'Malley claims that he was about to knock out Munhoz before the fight was waved off, he lost the first round according to two judges.
#UFC276 Official Scorecards: Pedro Munhoz vs Sean O'Malley
— UFC News (@UFCNews) July 3, 2022
Every scorecard from #UFC276 ??: https://t.co/PaViFxaShM pic.twitter.com/eGblLBll2w
Munhoz has some of the same physical attributes as O'Malley's upcoming opponent, but Yan is more technically polished, has tighter defense, boasts a better gas tank, and can wrestle. For his part, Yan has recently faced a similar long, creative kickboxer in Sandhagen. He also outpointed the Sandman, who is arguably a notch better than Suga.
Yan should be able to pick up the victory on Saturday and with six of his last seven fights going at least 15 minutes, I'm backing him to win by points.
Pick: Yan by Decision or Technical Decision (+105 at bet365)
