Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is on the main card for UFC 275 betting tonight, June 11.
This is a rematch of their all-out war from 2020 which was named UFC Fight of the Year. Jedrzejczyk took the loss in that bout and oddsmakers expect her to fall short once again with UFC odds installing the Polish fighter as a +138 underdog. Zhang is favored at -170 for this fight which will serve as a title eliminator for the strawweight division.
Here are our best free Zhang vs. Jedrzejczyk picks and predictions for June 11 from Singapore Indoor Stadium.
Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Zhang Weili | Joanna Jedrzejczyk |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +350 | +750 |
| To win by Points | +140 | +200 |
| To win by Submission | +1,100 | +3,500 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on June 9, 2022.
Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk betting preview
Zhang "Magnum" Weili enters UFC 275 on a two-fight skid after losing back-to-back fights to Rose Namajunas. She was knocked out by Thug Rose in the first round in April 2021 and then lost by split decision in a rematch to Namajunas later that year.
Prior to those defeats, Zhang had won 21 fights in a row. She claimed the strawweight title with a first-round knockout victory against Jessica Andrade in 2019 before defeating Jedrzejczyk by split decision in their epic first battle.
Magnum combines power and relentless pressure with formidable wrestling ability and brutal ground-and-pound.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk hasn't fought since losing to Zhang two years ago. She has just two wins in her last six fights with the other defeats coming against current flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko and Namajunas.
Jedrzejczyk won the 115-pound title in 2015 when she knocked out current champ Carla Esparza in the second round and she went on to successfully defend her belt five times in a row.
A highly accomplished martial artist with world championships in Muay Thai and kickboxing, the 34-year-old is a very technical striker with excellent accuracy and footwork. She can push the pace for 25 minutes and throws at an extremely high volume, landing 6.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.08.
Weili vs Jedrzejczyk tale of the tape
| Zhang Weili | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 115 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 63 inches | Reach | 65 1/2 inches |
| 21-3 | Record | 16-4 |
Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Zhang to win (-160)
The first fight between these two was extremely close with Jedrzejczyk actually having a 186-165 edge in significant strikes and winning 48-47 according to one judge. The reason Zhang had her arm raised was that her powerful strikes were more impactful, which could be seen in the brutal damage that Jedrzejczyk absorbed.
Jedrzejczyk face was unrecognizable by the end of the fight and she barely looked human. It was a wonder that she managed to stay on her feet and fire back, but that's the kind of damage that takes years off a career.
It's hard to see Jedrzejczyk fighting at the same level she used to and she hasn't been in the octagon in 27 months, so ring rust is an issue as well.
While Zhang has lost both her fights since then, she continues to add wrinkles to her game and her previous title challenge against Namajunas could have easily gone either way. She used her wrestling more in that bout and it's apparent that training at Fight Ready in Arizona alongside Henry Cejudo has helped her in the grappling department.
I'm not sure if we'll ever see peak Jedrzejczyk again but Zhang still has room to get better.
Prediction: Zhang to win (-160 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Zhang to win (-160)
Sometimes the best betting value lies in simply playing the outright winner. This is a decent number when you take into account Jedrzejczyk's inactivity and the damage she sustained last time out.
While it might be tempting to consider playing Zhang to win by points (which pays out at +150), Magnum has knockout power and Jedrzejczyk's chin might never be the same. We'll play it safe and take the outright bet.
Pick: Zhang to win (-160 at DraftKings)
