We’ve arrived at the US Open final on the men’s side, and we’re in for a real treat as we witness a rematch of the 2021 final which saw Daniil Medvedev deny Novak Djokovic a calendar grand slam.
US Open Men's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev odds and picks
|(2) Novak Djokovic||(3) Daniil Medvedev|
|-4.5 (-105)||Game spread||+4.5 (-115)|
|Over 39.5 (-105)||Total games||Under 39.5 (-115)|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 9, 2023.
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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev match prediction
Novak Djokovic is a vulnerable man entering this year’s US Open final. Not only will he have to deal with the man who knocked him off in the final here two years ago, but he will also have to raise his level to a place we have not seen all tournament in order to win his 24th career Grand Slam.
It’s always possible with Djokovic, considering he seems to pull out his best tennis when the stakes are highest. However, going off of what we’ve seen these past two weeks, I have a hard time believing the World No. 2 will have what it takes to win this match.
Djokovic lost more rallies of nine or more shots against Ben Shelton than he won on Friday, and that match came on the heels of a very flat performance against Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals. Medvedev, meanwhile, has looked calm and collected in digging himself out of some adverse positions in recent rounds and has produced arguably the best tennis of his career.
In defeating Alcaraz on Friday, Medvedev proved that he can win from the back of the court against anybody on his favorite surface. The serve-and-volley and drop shot of Alcaraz was answered for the most part, and the Russian also amped up the aggression to do damage with his forehand.
I think Medvedev is playing worlds better than Djokovic at the moment, and helping his cause is the fact that he’s defeated Djokovic five times in 14 meetings. That’s better than most can say, and very few can claim victory against Djokovic in a Grand Slam final.
Medvedev might run it back here.
Prediction: Medvedev to win (+220 at BetRivers)
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev best bet
The Medvedev serve has been a huge weapon at these championships, but it was particularly dangerous under the roof against Alcaraz. With rain in the forecast for Sunday, it’s very possible this match is played indoors once again, which should ultimately suit Medvedev’s game quite well.
I’m a huge fan of the Russian’s impenetrable defense at the moment, and I think even if the Djokovic forehand is more lethal under a roof, it still shouldn’t hamper Medvedev. After all, he got many Alcaraz forehands back into the court, and the Spaniard arguably has the best in the game right now.
I’d also point out here that Medvedev’s mental game has never been better. He could have lost his top at the crowd following some early deficits in recent matches, but instead, he powered through and shook off immense pressure. Medvedev's ability to seemingly block out the stakes of the moment will be paramount to his success on Sunday.
If you don’t want to take quite as big of a swing on Medvedev by taking the moneyline, I do think getting 4.5 games here is a gift.
Best bet: Medvedev +4.5 games (-115 at DraftKings)