Perhaps the biggest story of the 2021 US Open is 19-year-old Leylah Annie Fernandez shooting to stardom with victories against multiple major winners Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber — then showing immense composure at the latter stages of Tuesday's quarterfinal against World No. 5 Elina Svitolina.
Aryna Sabalenka’s path has been much more straightforward: she’s reeled off four straight-set wins since her subpar first-round performance and is the tennis betting favorite to reach her first major final.
Tennis Insiders breaks down this Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Annie Fernandez match with our US Open betting preview for the first women’s semifinal.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Annie Fernandez odds
| (2) Aryna Sabalenka | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| -400 | Moneyline | +300 |
| -4.5 (-125) | Match Handicap (Games) | +4.5 (-110) |
| 4.5 (Over +120/Under -163) | Total Breaks of Serve | 2.5 (Over -120/Under -120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of September 8, 2021
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US Open women's semifinal betting preview
Aryna Sabalenka betting breakdown
Sabalenka, for all her talent, had failed to advance past the fourth round of a major before Wimbledon this year — and now she is playing in her second major semifinal.
The 23-year-old Belarussian has often failed to produce her best tennis on the biggest stage, as her service technique can be vulnerable under pressure while her relentless desire to hit winners and go for the lines can lead to bunches of unforced errors.
When she’s confident and in rhythm, however, she’s almost unbeatable — and the fast conditions in New York are enhancing her game.
Leylah Annie Fernandez betting breakdown
Fernandez showed her potential in the early stages of the 2020 season, beating Belinda Bencic as a +600 underdog in Fed Cup actions before a finals run in Acapulco. The pandemic break stalled her momentum and her form dipped further after winning her first WTA title in March: She was 7-11 entering the US Open.
The 19-year-old was due for a breakout tournament and it certainly came earlier than expected, as she rallied from a set down against both No. 3 Osaka and No. 12 Kerber before holding her nerve to win a third set tiebreak — after losing a 5-2 lead — in her quarterfinal against Svitolina.
Fernandez’s style is incredibly difficult to play against: She’s an aggressive ball striker but it’s not through brute power... rather precision ball-striking and the ability to create amazing angles with her lefty forehand.
US Open women's semifinal matchup preview
Power meets placement in this fascinating matchup. Fernandez’s return of serve is going to be tested, as she’s faced two big servers already in this tournament (Kaia Kanepi and Osaka) and really struggled when facing their first serve.
Neither player wants to be defending in this matchup, so both will look to step inside the baseline and impose their game. Sabalenka’s backhand is technically clean and capable of trading with most left-handers’ forehands, while Fernandez’s ability to mix up speeds and spins should pay dividends as Sabalenka thrives off a set rhythm/tempo in the rally.
The biggest question, however, is how much does Fernandez have left in the tank? She’s played three consecutive matches that have pushed her to the limit — both physically and mentally — and this is the biggest match of her career. Preventing Sabalenka from growing in confidence is crucial, so Fernandez must avoid a slow start.
US Open women's semifinal picks
- Leylah Fernandez Over 4.5 double faults (-120)
- Aryna Sabalenka Over 6.5 double faults (-120)
