History will be made on Sunday in Melbourne.
Carlos Alcaraz looks to become the youngest player in history to win all four major tennis titles, while Novak Djokovic is chasing a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title.
With both men coming off epic, five-set semifinal matches, my Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions are backing the young gun.
Read on for my Australian Open betting picks for Sunday, February 1.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-320 at Fanatics)
- My best bet: Alcaraz 3-1 set score (+250 at Fanatics)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz should win because he currently possesses the highest physical ceiling remaining, a crucial factor following both finalists' grueling five-set semifinals.
At 22, his recovery rate is significantly faster than that of 38-year-old Novak Djokovic’s.
Beyond stamina, Alcaraz has the tactical variety to "take away Djokovic's legs" by using his signature drop shots and explosive court coverage to force the veteran into lung-busting rallies.
Both are highly motivated, but Alcaraz has beaten Djokovic in three of their last five major meetings and should do so again on Sunday.
Best best analysis
Carlos Alcaraz will win because his quicker recovery cycle outweighs Djokovic’s veteran experience in a battle of attrition.
While both played grueling semifinals, Alcaraz’s "cramping" was a hydration issue, far easier to fix than Novak’s documented neck and shoulder fatigue.
Tactically, Alcaraz’s improved serve should prevent Djokovic from dominating off the return.
By extending rallies, hitting droppers, and forcing the 38-year-old into deep-court sprints, Alcaraz will capitalize on Novak's physical "creaking."
Expect Djokovic to win a set, but Alcaraz’s superior lateral movement and extreme variety will ultimately beat the "King of Melbourne" in four sets.
Djokovic vs Alcaraz odds
| (4) Novak Djokovic | (1) Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| +240 | Moneyline | -310 |
| +4.5 (-110) | Game spread | -4.5 (-130) |
| Over 38.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 38.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics.
How to watch Djokovic vs Alcaraz
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Australia |
| Date | Sunday, February 1, 2026 |
| Time | 3:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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