Sharks vs Maple Leafs   Picks & Props

This total will close at 7. The Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks are two poor defensive teams, ranking in the bottom seven in expected goals allowed/60 at all strengths. Both clubs also surrender plenty of quality chances on the penalty kill, ranking in the bottom six in 4-on-5 xGA/60. Add in two teams with save percentages in the bottom third of the league, and Monday night could get a little raucous. The Leafs were riding a five-game Over streak before Saturday's 4-1 loss to the Islanders snapped it. However, scoring on Ilya Sorokin is much different than facing Yaroslav Askarov, who has allowed 3+ goals in every start this season. If Askarov gets the nod, expect this total to move north quickly. Likely Toronto starter Anthony Stolarz hasn't been much better, allowing nine goals over his last two games.

Play up to 50%. Auston Matthews has scored four times in his last four games and leads Toronto in individual high-danger chances. With San Jose ranking near the bottom of the league in both goals and shots allowed, Matthews has another appealing scoring opportunity.

Matthews has scored a goal in three of his last four games and is clearly all the way back. We've cashed this play at a near 80% clip, and I see no reason to get cute here. With Matthews registering nearly five high-danger shot attempts per 60, I'll invest in him to score his seventh of the campaign.

Before Marchenko's hat-trick against the Buffalo Sabres, the Russian winger had recorded an assist in four straight games. Playing alongside one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL, Auston Matthews, helps our cause, too. He's a vital part of a power play that has scored nine times already this season - the fifth-most in the league. He'll play as a bumper on the man advantage, and is vital down low; expect him to be all around the puck.

The math here is simple: both teams are abysmal in their own end, with the Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks both ranking in the bottom 10 in expected goals against. Meanwhile, the offenses are dangerous, with both power plays ranking in the top 10 and clicking at 23% or better. With Macklin Celebrini fully healthy for the Sharks, expect both teams to contribute. It helps that the Sharks can, at times, play an undisciplined brand of hockey, averaging close to 10 minutes of penalties per game. What does that all add up to? An Over.

The Maple Leafs can't stop anybody and boast a fairly potent offense through the early part of the season. The Sharks are similarly bereft on defense, which should result in a high-octane finish in Toronto.