Best NFL Picks Today

It's no secret - the Cowboys have a problem on defense. Not only does the unit rank last in EPA/play, but it's also giving up 150 yards on the ground per game. The defense's 601 yards surrendered on the ground is good for 31st in the league, too. This bodes well for Bucky Irving, who's gone over this low number in two of his last three games. Averaging 16 attempts per game, the volume is there for Irving to have himself a game, even with Jalon Daniels at quarterback.

Jacksonville is 7–0 ATS when favored by at least three points since the start of 2025. They just don't win in this spot, they blow the doors off weaker competition, covering by an average of 14.9 points in these games! An injury-ravaged Philly squad looks like another meal in Jacksonville’s home away from home in London. With Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith nursing hamstring injuries, the struggling Eagles offense faces a defense allowing just over 13 points per game. 

I got Quinshon Judkins at 39%, but have his fair TD price at 46%. He was as short as 2.1x just two games ago and is coming off a game where he handled 83% of all running back opportunities, including a massive seven-target game. Considering how the Jets’ offense performed last week without Breece Hall, Cleveland could easily be playing with the lead and leaning on Judkins for a 4-1 SU push. Near the goal line, it has been all Judkins, as he has all nine of Cleveland’s running back red-zone carries this season, scoring on one and adding another three targets. This offense has been average over the last three weeks, and that’s a compliment. Judkins’ price will fall this week.

There are some concerns about getting this number early with Ja'Marr Chase still in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins a DNP due to multiple injuries, but I'm rolling with the rookie receiver in an elite matchup with an offense that had the second-highest pass rate of 2026 by any team last week. Meyers could be as short as 2.4x if both Chase and Higgins miss Week 5, after getting nine targets and 82 yards on a 93% route share last week. He played opposite Higgins when Chase went out and could still have a massive role even if one of the elite WRs suits up. He has WR3 value in this offense regardless, which runs 11 personnel at a 50% rate.

I got Drake Maye at 5.25x when this price was 4.7x two weeks ago, and I have a fair price closer to 4.75x. Maye has been using his legs, coming off an eight-carry game, and he's had a carry from inside the 5-yard line in back-to-back games. He has yet to score this year after rushing for four TDs last season. This is a big price for a QB who has averaged more than 25 rushing yards over the last two seasons across a 21-game sample. His legs were a big part of the Patriots knocking off the Bills, and that skill set should continue to be on display with New England needing to dig itself out of an early-season hole. Rhamondre Stevenson is also dealing with a knee issue, which could create even more rushing opportunities for Maye.

Minnesota pairs an NFL-best defense allowing 12.8 points per game with an offense ranking dead last in yards per play. That’s a beautiful recipe for punts and a low-scoring game. The Vikings are 6–1 to the Under in their last seven, with their last three averaging just 25.3 combined points. New Orleans’ running game ranks 28th in yards per carry which will limit their scoring opportunities against this elite defense.

I'll turn to Nico Collins at this price and in a plus-matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Despite missing two games, Collins still owns a 43% target share in the red zone and three touchdowns to his name. He returned last week and posted a casual seven catches for 118 yards and two scores. Against the Titans, the scoring volume will be there, as will his red-zone opportunities. Let's ride with the Texans' WR1.

The Giants are 12–4 to the Over in their last 16, while Washington is 7–1 in its last eight. Those generous defenses keep delivering, ranking 28th and 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed. Washington surrenders 30.5 points per game, and Jayden Daniels’ expected return adds some extra pop. We don’t need a shootout to clear this low number. 

I got this at 4.3x and would play it to 4x. The Steelers are passing the ball at an above-average rate and used 2-TE sets at a season-high 42% last week. Darnell Washington has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has 94 yards and a score over that stretch. He also had two red-zone targets in Week 4 and saw just as many targets as Pat Freiermuth. Washington is a human refrigerator who faces a Colts defense coming back from London and ranks as a Top-10 matchup for tight ends. Indy is also allowing 392 total yards per game (31st) and 26 points per game (22nd). The Pittsburgh tight end is a great mid-range TD target at this price for a Week 5 card.

Ben Johnson's offense supports two running backs. We've seen it in Detroit, and we're seeing it in Chicago. Because of Monangai's output last week, Swift's price is at an all-time bargain and something worth buying to even money. Swift still has 19 red-zone carries to Monangai's 14, so it's not like Swift is simply the between-the-20s back. There's a reason he's the highest-rated TD on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index this week. It's a cupcake matchup for both backs. The Packers are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing TDs to the position. I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson wanted to run the score up against his division rivals, whom he eliminated in the Wild Card last year. Watch the injury reports. I'll play Swift to 50% with Monangai in, and if either back sits, I'll play the healthy one to 55% and likely sprinkle on Roschon Johnson.

This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x rather than his 4.7x price. The Broncos are missing key bodies in the secondary, as Patrick Surtain is doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable. Helping Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of his receivers. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable. The only players seemingly healthy on this Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards. Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets. This is one of my favorite TD prices this weekend.

A massive total won’t scare me off when Detroit scores 29.8 points per game and allows 31.8. Arizona gives up 29.3 itself, so expect plenty of fireworks. The Lions are 9–2 to the Over in their last 11, averaging 57.5 combined points. Six of these teams’ eight games this season have reached at least combined 55 points.

Brock Purdy’s got wheels. The 49ers QB has rushed for 29 or more yards in each game this season and Week 5 projections range from 17.5 to a ceiling of 31 yards. My number comes out to 23 rushing yards. Purdy rushed for 37 yards vs Seattle in the playoffs and the Seahawks have already allowed the fourth most rushing yards to QBs this season. 

Backup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.

There is meat on the bone for a Dalton Kincaid TD that opened at 3.2x, and I have a fair price of 2.8x. Kincaid has been ignored too much over the last two weeks as the Bills have moved away from their heavy-TE usage and used play-action at a lower rate. Let's hope a Week 4 loss to New England pushes Joe Brady back toward the 13-personnel usage we saw in Weeks 1 and 2, when Kincaid had 225 receiving yards and a score. It's a great buy-low spot on the tight end after he has just three receptions over the last two weeks. Buffalo has played bad football over the last two games, and getting Kincaid the ball has to be a priority in what could be an indoor shootout.