LA -11.0 o46.5
CAR 11.0 u46.5
GB -1.0 o45.5
CHI 1.0 u45.5
BUF -1.0 o52.0
JAC 1.0 u52.0
SF 5.0 o44.5
PHI -5.0 u44.5
LAC 4.0 o46.0
NE -4.0 u46.0
HOU -3.0 o39.5
PIT 3.0 u39.5
Chargers 2nd AFC West11-6
Patriots 1st AFC East14-3

Chargers @ Patriots Picks & Props

LAC vs NE Picks

NFL Picks
Total
Los Angeles Chargers logo New England Patriots logo u46.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.

Score a Touchdown
TreVeyon Henderson logo
TreVeyon Henderson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)
Projection 0.55 (Yes)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
Passing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye u242.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Projection 229.51 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Interceptions Thrown
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-110)
Projection 0.38 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 13 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Interceptions Thrown
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+100)
Projection 0.44 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Receiving Yards
Ladd McConkey logo
Ladd McConkey o40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 55.26 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
Receiving Yards
TreVeyon Henderson logo
TreVeyon Henderson o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 15.05 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
Receiving Yards
Oronde Gadsden logo
Oronde Gadsden o30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 35.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
Drake Maye logo
Drake Maye o24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 31.2 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 24.84 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rushing Attempts
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u5.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)
Projection 4.6 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
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LAC vs NE Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

There are no Consensus Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Consensus to see all Consensus picks.

Consensus Picks

LAC vs NE Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

TreVeyon Henderson Score a Touchdown Props • New England

TreVeyon Henderson
T. Henderson
running back RB • New England
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

TreVeyon Henderson logo

TreVeyon Henderson

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.55
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.55

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Omarion Hampton Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Omarion Hampton
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.45
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.45
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.1% red zone pass rate. The Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.

Omarion Hampton logo

Omarion Hampton

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.45
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.45

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.1% red zone pass rate. The Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

LAC vs NE Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

Total

'Kazual12' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

Kazual12 is #2 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (13-3-0) and +6550 units on the season.

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'IceHouseSports' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

IceHouseSports is #6 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (10-6-0) and +6050 units on the season.

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Under
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'blueminer000' picks L.A. Chargers vs New England to go Under (46.0)

blueminer000 is #9 on picking games that L.A. Chargers are in with a record of (9-7-0) and +5500 units on the season.

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