The Patriots get a big boost with OLB Harold Landry III on track to return after missing two weeks with a knee injury. Landry led New England with 8.5 sacks and notched a sack in three of his last four games. L.A. has struggled in pass protection with offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater out with season-ending injuries. The Chargers allowed 60 sacks during the regular season — the second-highest number in the NFL.
Justin Herbert's favorite target should get plenty of the ball in a tough playoff environment. With nearly +300 being offered, I’m happy to back this Allen to score in a big game.
With a defense that can bring pressure and force turnovers, it may be more about making smart throws than pushing the ball down the field for Maye, a recipe that favors Henry even more than normal. Let’s go with the tight end to find the endzone in Maye’s first postseason appearance.
New England finished the regular season with an NFL-best 1st Half record of 12-4-1 ATS. They led the league in 1st Half scoring while the Chargers ranked 20th. I expect the fast starts to continue as Los Angeles could be in for a long adjustment period as an indoor team playing in frigid New England weather with the temperature expected to be below 40°F at kickoff.
Maye made magic with his ability to tuck and run, marching for 450 rushing yards this season. However, as playoff chances improved, his propensity to run dwindled as the Patriots worried more about protecting their passer. In the first 10 games, Maye recorded seven or more carries seven times. He’s reached that bar just once in the last seven outings. That caution goes out the window Sunday. A tough L.A. defense – especially on third downs – will spring Maye from the pocket and we’ll see a return to the run. His rushing projections sit as high as 31 yards for Sunday.
Drake Maye has been fantastic this season but he was also sacked 47 times — the fourth-highest number in the NFL. Maye holds on to the ball too long, largely due to his mediocre receivers who have a hard time separating from DBs. They'll have a tough time getting open against a strong Chargers pass defense which will make him a standing target for Tuli Tuipulotu. Tuipulotu finished the regular season 11th in the league in pressures (70) and sixth in sacks (13). He has picked up a sack in six of his last nine games and should add to that tally on Sunday.
TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are splitting the backfield, but their roles have become more defined. Stevenson has been more involved as a pass catcher, while Henderson has handled the heavier rushing workload, with 22 carries over the last two games compared to just 15 for Stevenson. Henderson has also taken over the high-leverage touches. Since Week 10, he has 13 red-zone carries to Stevenson’s four, including six attempts from inside the five-yard line versus only two for Stevenson. That kind of usage is hard to ignore. Henderson should see at least 60% of the carries and continue to dominate the early-down goal-line work. At anything to +110 for a touchdown, this is a price worth playing.
The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.
The model projects the Chargers to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
A rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.2 per game) this year.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Chargers defense this year (65.7% Adjusted Completion%).
At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (59.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.. The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
A rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.2 per game) this year.. This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a mere 185.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
The model projects the Chargers to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.3%) vs. wideouts this year (67.3%).. The Patriots pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 8.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.. The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86%) versus running backs this year (86.0%).
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has been torched for a whopping 57.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-most in the league.
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