Bills @ Jaguars Picks & Props

The Jaguars enter the postseason on fire, but I'm not sold on this inexperienced team beating a Bills squad that has made several deep playoff runs. Since their bye in Week 9, the Jags rank just 29th in rush success rate with Travis Etienne averaging 3.6 yards per carry. They won't be able to take advantage of Buffalo's piss-poor run defense. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville's defense has been heavily reliant on forcing turnovers. However, the Bills' explosive offense takes care of the ball, and Josh Allen will pick apart a mediocre Jags secondary.

Josh Allen is the ultimate X-factor and the most dangerous QB the Jags have faced all season. This Buffalo offensive line is also elite and can win the war in the trenches against a solid Jacksonville defense. Defensively, Jacksonville’s strength is the run stop. It ranks No. 4 in Run Defense DVOA and No. 3 in opponent success rate per handoff. That could bottle up RB James Cook and force both offenses to take to the air this weekend. While the Bills aren’t at home in the Wild Card Round, this trip to Duval County offers a rare warm weather outing. The extended forecast for Sunday afternoon looks clear, which will boost production after Buffalo was locked in cold outdoor venues since Week 13. The Bills have also gone 8-3-1 Over/Under in postseason games since 2020.

The Bills can’t stop the run with ranks of 31st in EPA per rush and rush defense DVOA through the first 17 weeks of the season, and the Jags are rolling along an eight-game winning streak. I also don’t think the moment will be too big for Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’s been under the spotlight for nearly a decade and has ample weapons at his disposal. Plus, if – and more likely when – this game officially turns into a shootout, I trust the Jags to make more defensive stops than the Bills.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the best in the NFL this year.. Josh Allen's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 71.1%.

The model projects the Jaguars to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. With a sizeable 20.5% Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's safety corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Brenton Strange's 73.9% Route Participation Rate this season represents a remarkable boost in his passing game utilization over last season's 45.2% mark.. The leading projections forecast Brenton Strange to total 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Brenton Strange has posted far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.3 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to earn 4.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a colossal 39.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 40.8% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects the Jaguars to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. The Jaguars linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. This year, the formidable Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has yielded a paltry 87.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the best in the NFL.. The Jaguars linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. This year, the formidable Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has yielded a paltry 87.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the best in the NFL.. The Jaguars linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.