The Bills have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than any team in the NFL, giving up 18 this season. Factor in catches, and running backs have scored 21 total against them. That’s not the only reason Travis Etienne Jr. is the best bet on the board for the Jaguars, as Buffalo has also surrendered the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, with just 19 through 17 games. Expect the Jaguars’ running back to find what many call the “ETN-zone” at least once.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been hurt at times by scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing more than 4.6 yards per attempt. When the Buffalo Bills get inside the 10-yard line, Josh Allen’s legs become a major factor. He ranks 13th with 22 carries inside the 10, just four fewer than James Cook this season. Inside the five, Allen has one fewer attempt than Cook’s 14. Although Allen took just one snap last week, he rushed for two touchdowns the week before. With Jacksonville’s run defense remaining stout, expect Allen to scramble on third downs — or simply punch it in via the tush push.
The Bills are small road favorites and I'm not sure they should be since Jacksonville enters the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games. The Jags finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and is also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings. The Jags are fifth in the league in defensive EPA and have been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.
The Jaguars have a Top-3 run defense so James Cook might not have his usual success on the ground. That should lead to Buffalo relying on Josh Allen to air it out against a vulnerable secondary. Allen is one of the best QBs in the NFL but his passing numbers wildly fluctuate due to game script and weather conditions. However, with this game close to a pick'em he'll likely throw more than usual. And with balmy 65-degree temps in Jacksonville, this will be the nicest weather he has played in since Week 12.
Parker Washington should not be priced longer than Jakobi Meyers to score a TD. He is the clear WR1 right now and has led the team in nearly every meaningful receiving metric over the last three weeks, piling up 29 targets, 19 catches, 347 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s also seen four red-zone targets during that stretch. Getting a potential double-digit target receiver in a game with a 52-point total at anything better than +160 is a strong TD value. Washington is quietly one of the most underrated offensive players heading into the playoffs.
The Bills could be down to a third string kicker in the Wild Card Round, with Matt Prater – the backup – missing practice with a quads injury. He reaggravated it in Week 18, which left Buffalo to go for 2-points twice. Even before Prater’s injury, the Bills were one of the most active 2-point convert teams in the league and with this spread vs. Jacksonville hovering around 1 points, a 2-point try could decide the game.
This has been one of my favorite bets all season, because bookies have to pad the Under due to Allen’s activity in the red zone. He’s been known to call his own number from time to time. Allen has gone two games without a passing TD (ignoring Week 18) but in the 14 games prior, he connected for two or more TDs in nine of those outings. I mentioned the Jags shutting down the Bills run game. They don’t allow many TDs to running backs. This one is on Allen to win and he’s a major step up in QB competition for the Jags.
The Jaguars are going to target James Cook and this running game and they can shut it down. They were able to bottle up Jonathan Taylor and Colts ground game in two meetings. Luckily the QBs for the Colts were Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard – after Jones went down – but those two backups still completed 17 and 18 of their pass attempts. Big step up in QB competition in Allen, especially when we look at the quarterbacks the Jags have faced in the home stretch. Allen also gets to play in nice conditions for the first time since playing indoors at Houston in Week 12.
Josh Allen is the ultimate X-factor and the most dangerous QB the Jags have faced all season. This Buffalo offensive line is also elite and can win the war in the trenches against a solid Jacksonville defense. Defensively, Jacksonville’s strength is the run stop. It ranks No. 4 in Run Defense DVOA and No. 3 in opponent success rate per handoff. That could bottle up RB James Cook and force both offenses to take to the air this weekend. While the Bills aren’t at home in the Wild Card Round, this trip to Duval County offers a rare warm weather outing. The extended forecast for Sunday afternoon looks clear, which will boost production after Buffalo was locked in cold outdoor venues since Week 13. The Bills have also gone 8-3-1 Over/Under in postseason games since 2020.
The Bills can’t stop the run with ranks of 31st in EPA per rush and rush defense DVOA through the first 17 weeks of the season, and the Jags are rolling along an eight-game winning streak. I also don’t think the moment will be too big for Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’s been under the spotlight for nearly a decade and has ample weapons at his disposal. Plus, if – and more likely when – this game officially turns into a shootout, I trust the Jags to make more defensive stops than the Bills.
The model projects the Jaguars to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. With a remarkable 20.0% Red Zone Target% (84th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir stands as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.. As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the best in the NFL this year.
The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. While James Cook has garnered 4.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 10.8%.. When it comes to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a striking 3.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
The model projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.. With a lackluster 60.5% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the least accurate passers in the league.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
The model projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.. With a lackluster 60.5% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the least accurate passers in the league.. This year, the fierce Bills defense has yielded a mere 172.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
The model projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. With a sizeable 20.5% Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The model projects the Jaguars to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's safety corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.
The model projects the Jaguars to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game.. Brenton Strange's 73.9% Route Participation Rate this season represents a remarkable boost in his passing game utilization over last season's 45.2% mark.. The leading projections forecast Brenton Strange to total 5.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Brenton Strange has posted far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
At the moment, the 3rd-least run-oriented team in football (36.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.. The model projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
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