Commanders @ Vikings Picks & Props
WAS vs MIN Picks
NFL Picks
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst
Jayden Daniels is an excellent rusher when needed out of the pocket and the Vikings rank 25th in the NFL in allowing quarterback scrambles.
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
In his first game back after a four-week absence, Terry McLaurin drew 14 targets — tied for the most of any player in Week 13. Even more impressive, he did it on just 49% of the snaps with Marcus Mariota under center. Now he steps into an indoor matchup against a Minnesota team that can’t generate much offense, and he could see a QB upgrade if Jayden Daniels returns. Even if he doesn’t, getting a receiver at better than +200 who’s capable of 10+ targets is an easy play in Week 14. His snap share will only rise as he gets back to full form. With that Week 13 volume, he should be closer to +150.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. The projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to total 7.7 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (25.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.6%).. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 4.9 adjusted receptions vs just 3.6 last season.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 63.6% to 79.0%.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Right now, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football in the red zone (64.6% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league against the Commanders defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).. The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.92 per game this year.. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the league against the Commanders defense this year (74.2% Adjusted Completion%).. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (270.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.. The Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
WAS vs MIN Consensus Picks
WAS vs MIN Props
WAS vs MIN Trends
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