Chicago @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week. While Ja'Marr Chase has been responsible for 30.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Cincinnati's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 35.7%.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up a massive 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league. This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a colossal 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week. Noah Fant's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 76.7% to 92.7%.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Cole Kmet has notched significantly more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game). Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.0. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the deficient Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up a colossal 1.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the highest rate in the league.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week. While Chase Brown has been responsible for 72.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati's rushing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 51.1%.

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the anemic Bengals defense has allowed a whopping 2.38 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.