With a solid October run, the Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings, and they’ve won two of their last three road games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6 ATS in their past nine contests, and they’re sweating on Flacco’s shoulder injury, with Jake Browning waiting in the wings. Although Cincinnati has the firepower to keep up if it turns into a shootout, I like Chicago to get enough stops to cover this small spread.
With a 51.5-point total, these touchdown props are priced about as tight as it gets. Still, one number stands out — Kyle Monangai at +225. D’Andre Swift played just 50% of the snaps last week while managing a groin injury, opening the door for Monangai. He logged seven carries in Week 8, but just a week earlier posted 13 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown. The matchup doesn’t hurt either — everyone’s finding the end zone against the Bengals lately (even the Jets). Given the pricing on other Chicago skill players, Monangai to score at +200 or better is my favorite TD look in what should be a high-scoring game.
Caleb Williams not living up to the hype to start his second year but has a chance to pad his stats against a poor passing defense in Cincinnati. The Bengals sit dead last in several stats against the air attack and allow the second most passing TDs per game. Justin Fields looked like a capable QB against them last week and projections for Williams leaning toward two TD throws. The Bears red zone offense is shit, luckily Cincy’s RZ defense is just as doo doo.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up a massive 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.. This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a colossal 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 65.9% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. While Ja'Marr Chase has been responsible for 30.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Cincinnati's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 35.7%.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.. In this week's contest, Joe Flacco is anticipated by the model to have the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 41.6.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.. In this week's contest, Joe Flacco is anticipated by the model to have the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 41.6.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.. This week, Chase Brown is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.6 targets.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Cole Kmet has notched significantly more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).. Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.0.. This year, the poor Bengals defense has given up a massive 75.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the worst in the NFL.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.. The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to notch 14.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
The Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 134.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop-off.. In this contest, Noah Fant is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the feeble Bengals defense has been gouged for a whopping 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 3rd-worst in the league.. This year, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up a massive 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the league.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
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