Tua Tagovailoa lit up the Falcons for four touchdowns last time out after Atlanta held Mac Jones and the beat-up 49ers offense to no passing touchdowns. Before that, though, both Josh Allen and Marcus Mariota had a pair of touchdowns each. Maye & Co. should keep clicking at home on Sunday afternoon.
Drake Maye is a legit MVP contender entering Week 9, and the Falcons' defense is not as good as maybe we thought after the Dolphins wacked them last week. The potential loss of safety, Jessie Bates, is also a huge bonus for Maye and this New England offense. Stefon Diggs is the target this week at +155 with a buy to +135/+140. Diggs' role is getting stronger, and his work in the red zone is very valuable, as this is a very inefficient running team, especially near the goal line. Diggs tied for the position lead in RZ targets last week with three and brought one in for a score.
Starting QB Michael Penix Jr. and London are officially day to day heading toward the weekend. The defense could also see key cogs back this Sunday. Safety Jessie Bates, CB Billy Bowman Jr., DL Zach Harrison, and edge Jalon Walker also got the “day to day” tag from head coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta is going to need all those defenders in action to contain Drake Maye and this explosive New England attack. The Patriots second-year QB has been slinging it, sitting second in completed air yards as well as big plays, with 29 completions for 20-plus yards. Morris’ defense doesn’t give up home runs, limiting foes to 4.9 yards per play and allowing a league-low 11 completed passes of 20 or more yards. Atlanta’s zone-centric schemes are the perfect foil for Maye’s deep shots, as the quarterback is elite against man-to-man but sees a downtick in completion rate, catchable balls, and overall passer rating versus zone.
This is a bounce-back spot for the Falcons, who should get back Michael Penix and No. 1 wideout Drake London after they missed last week's embarrassing loss to Miami. The Falcons have been inconsistent, but this is a talented team that should challenge for a playoff spot. The Patriots have won five in a row, but four of those wins came against teams that have combined for an 8-24 record. The Pats are 17th in the league in total DVOA, which is just four spots above the Falcons. This spread should be a point or two closer.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. While Rhamondre Stevenson has earned 6.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 13.2%.. Rhamondre Stevenson has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (10.0 per game) than he did last season (-3.0 per game).. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for the most receiving TDs in football to running backs: 0.57 per game this year.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. The Falcons have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.. Drake London has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Drake London's 72.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for the most receiving TDs in football to running backs: 0.57 per game this year.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -5-point underdogs.. The Falcons have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.. Bijan Robinson has compiled a colossal 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.. With a remarkable ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (94th percentile), Bijan Robinson places as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Falcons to pass on 56.9% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The model projects the Falcons to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the league.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.
In this contest, Hunter Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 78th percentile among tight ends with 4.9 targets.. When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a colossal 38.0 per game.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. With a remarkable 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (83rd percentile) this year, Hunter Henry ranks as one of the leading TE receiving threats in the NFL.. Hunter Henry's receiving efficiency has improved this year, notching 10.02 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.86 mark last year.
This week, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the predictive model to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.. With a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (85th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places as one of the leading wide receivers in the league in the NFL.. Stefon Diggs's 86.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a remarkable boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.7% mark.. Stefon Diggs's 10.3 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a material growth in his receiving prowess over last year's 7.8 mark.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -5-point underdogs.. The Falcons have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.. The projections expect Drake London to total 9.0 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.. Drake London's 72.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for wideouts.. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.3%) to wide receivers this year (68.3%).
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Falcons to pass on 56.9% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. The model projects the Falcons to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. Kyle Pitts's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.98 mark last year.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 9th-best in the league.
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