Best NFL Picks Today

Christian Watson is trading at 41% on Kalshi to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers, and I'll hit the button at that price as I value his chances closer to 47%. With Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson still out at cornerback, and the Panthers deploying single-high coverage at a much higher rate than most teams, Watson should have opportunities to exploit one-on-one matchups on the boundary. Those isolation routes give him a chance to win his matchup and find the end zone.

Travis Hunter broke out in Week 6, and although he wasn't running a ton of routes, he was targeted on four of his seven routes. Brian Thomas' role is falling off a cliff, and Liam Cohen is talking about "chomping away" at Hunter's increased role in the offense going forward. He isn't going to see 100 snaps, but his offensive role looks like it could slowly increase each week. The talent is there, and 13% doesn't seem like enough of an adjustment coming out of the bye. He shouldn't be less probable to score than Josh Cameron or Thomas.

I'm buying some Tony Pollard this week vs. the Bengals and willing to take this to 1.91x (52.4%). He had 28 RB opportunities last week, accounting for 88% of the backfield workload. The Titans don't want Cam Ward throwing 35 times a game, and Pollard will get fed even when trailing, especially in a neutral game script. This offense ranks dead last in PROE, and Tyjae Spears, who missed last week, had just one carry in Week 6. Pollard has one of the safest roles in any offense and has as many red-zone carries as Jonathan Taylor on the season.

Coming back from Europe with no bye is a death sentence for most teams, as they're a cool 0-8 ATS in the last eight of these situations. Pittsburgh's offense didn't look great vs. the Saints, so the TD choice in this game is pretty easy for me. The Steelers have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to opposing running backs in football, but after hitting Denzel Boston for two weeks with nothing to show for it, it's KC Concepcion for me. He had 10 targets last week and passed Boston for the team lead in target share. He also carried the ball three times, which is something the Browns might have to get creative with again this week against that Pittsburgh defense. I got this at 27% and would buy at 29%.

Aaron Jones exited last week, but even before the injury, Jordan Mason was eating up the biggest share of the RB pie with 57% of the backfield opportunities. Jones has always struggled to stay healthy and aggravated an existing knee injury last week. Mason could be the lead back on a defense-first team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in PROE.  The Lions are one of seven teams allowing 27+ points per game and rank 27th in red-zone TD%. Jones didn't practice Wednesday, and this price should be 54% if he's out.

Baker is back, and the Buccaneers didn't need to pass much last week, finishing with the lowest PROE in football. That will be very tough to replicate, which should mean a bigger workload for Chris Godwin, who operated as WR1 with Emeka Egbuka out. Egbuka is dealing with multiple injuries, including a concussion, so his return to the field isn't guaranteed this week. The worst Godwin can be is WR2 against a defense that has given up 105 points over its last four games. I got this at 27% and would play to 32% if Egbuka sits and 30% if he plays.

I think if you're choosing between Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier, you're taking the latter at 31% vs. Knight at 39%. That's too big of a difference when Allgeier has four more carries over the last two weeks and six red-zone opportunities. Neither is a bad choice vs. the Cowboys, who just gave up 121 rushing yards to the Eagles on Monday night and two rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Dallas is a bottom-tier team at defending the position. Bam might be doing more with his carries, but I'd rather back volume, which comes with less variance. I got Allgeier at 31% and would play him to 33%.

Only the Bills' defense is allowing more TDs to opposing WRs than the Raiders. Since Week 3, this defense ranks dead last in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback success rate. Omar Cooper still ripped off 115 yards and a score last week despite the return of Adonai Mitchell and the team running just 53 plays. He's gone for 100+ yards and a score in back-to-back weeks. His efficiency is off the charts right now, and he shouldn't be priced 100 points longer than Garrett Wilson. I have Cooper at 30%.

Zay Flowers' TD price has ranged from 2.15x to 3.1x, but if Lamar Jackson is in and this Buffalo defense doesn't trade for an entirely new secondary, Flowers should be closer to 41% to score Sunday. Jackson practiced in a limited fashion last week, and Flowers has a TD and 100+ receiving yards in 50% of his games this year despite the injuries at quarterback. Buffalo's defense allows the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in football at 1.4 per game. 

The Rams went with heavy TE sets last week without Davante Adams in the lineup, and Colby Parkinson stood out again while Tyler Higbee's targets continued to fall. However, Parkinson picked up a rib injury and didn't practice Wednesday, which could open the door for Davis Allen to step up. Allen had two TDs last week on five targets and could see some run as TE1 if Parkinson sits. He's also being used well in the red zone, with four RZ targets over his last three games. Terrance Ferguson is also out, creating the potential for a big role in an indoor game. Allen is at 15% but should be priced closer to 24%, around Higbee's current price.

Eli Raridon has been on my TD radar since opening night vs. the Seahawks. He added another score last week and has 50+ yards in two of his last three games, along with a red-zone target in four straight contests. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are out, and A.J. Brown was limited at practice Wednesday. The rookie tight end has value at 5x or better as a legitimate red-zone threat on a team that's struggling to run the ball. I wouldn't go past 22% or 4.5x.

After Jonah Coleman put up 54 yards on nine carries last week vs. the Cardinals, Denver head coach Sean Payton said he needs to get him more touches. It was Coleman's first game off IR, and he accounted for 50% of the RB opportunities. J.K. Dobbins poached a one-yard score, but his price is the same despite playing just 12 snaps. There's a good chance Coleman leads this backfield in snaps again this week. With Jaylen Waddle exiting last week, Denver is looking for an offensive spark in a divisional game where the Broncos can leapfrog the Chiefs for the AFC West lead. I got this at 31%, but 36% seems much closer to the fair price.

To the Eagles’ credit, they were able to hang tough on MNF with a backup QB missing his top two WRs and a rusty Saquon Barkley coming back from injury. Philadelphia actually ranked No. 5 in EPA per play through the first 45 minutes among all Week 7 offenses. Washington gets little support from the stop unit, which is ranked in the bottom 10 in many key metrics like success rate allowed, opponent third down conversions, and red zone defense (dead last with foes enjoying an almost 82% TD rate).