Mac Jones once again gets the start for San Francisco and faces a Giants front seven that can generate pressure in the pocket and force the QB to make plays with his legs. Jones has rushed for 13, 11 and 23 yards in his last three starts and New York has allowed the fifth most rushing yards to QBs so far in 2025. The G-Men run man almost exclusively which means the defenders in coverage turn their backs to the QB, which can help scrambling QBs pick up added yards when they decide to take off. Jones’ rushing projections range from 11 to more than 15 yards in Week 9.
The Giants have been gashed on the ground to the tune of NFL highs in both yards and EPA per rushing attempt, and I’m confident that if the G-Men sell out to improve their run defense, the 49ers can move the ball through the air. Either way, I’m anticipating San Fran controlling the time of possession and covering the number Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium.
Christian McCaffrey had three receptions for 43 yards last week against Houston. That was the first time this season that he has logged fewer than 50 receiving yards in a game. The All-Pro still on pace to shatter the NFL record for receiving yards in a season by a RB and he's averaging 69.9 ypg through the air. The Texans have the best DVOA against pass-catching backs and C-Mac has an easier matchup this week against the Giants. New York is 15th in DVOA against backs and struggles to make tackles in the second level. The strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush but that will result in Mac Jones throwing more short passes to outlet options like McCaffrey.
The 49ers’ defense is still banged up, and the loss of Cam Skattebo puts more pressure on the New York passing game. With TE Daniel Bellinger nursing a neck injury, Darius Slayton could see more looks after returning last week as the team’s only true deep threat against the Eagles. Slayton didn’t find the end zone but had a long touchdown wiped out by a questionable offensive pass interference call. Wan’Dale Robinson handles the short routes, while this Giants offense has quietly been the best red-zone unit over the last three weeks, scoring on nearly 90% of trips inside the 20. New York could be a sneaky play to put up 25+ points this week. Tyrone Tracy can keep the run game steady, and Slayton has the upside to finish drives. I’d play the Giants team total Over or 25+ points at +200.
The Niners are coming off a one-sided loss to a very stout Houston team and while San Francisco stays on the road – travelling all the way to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – it’s in a much better spot than the Giants. New York suffered a gutting loss at Philadelphia on Sunday, not just getting slammed by a vengeful defending champion but watching electric rookie RB and unofficial mascot Cam Skattebo go down with a gruesome ankle injury. While the G-Men are losing bodies, the 49ers are getting them back. Quarterback Brock Purdy has a good shot at returning under center after another week of practice and the pressure of Sunday’s loss forcing a change at QB. New York’s defense was already dealing with injuries in Week 8 and could be down two starting defensive backs. The Giants have allowed 26, 33 and 38 points in three of their last four contests.
The San Francisco 49ers may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 49ers have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.. The Giants defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey ranks in the towering 100th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an astounding 23.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 138.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. While Wan'Dale Robinson has earned 15.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New York's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 29.0%.. After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last season, Wan'Dale Robinson has gotten better this season, now pacing 69.0 per game.. Wan'Dale Robinson ranks in the 80th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 54.1 mark this year.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 138.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The Giants O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, San Francisco's collection of CBs has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in football.
The San Francisco 49ers may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 49ers have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.. The Giants defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Jauan Jennings to earn 7.8 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 138.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The Giants O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.. The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 138.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The 49ers have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, conceding 5.83 adjusted yards-per-carry.. The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Giants to run on 46.3% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 138.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The 49ers defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Giants to run on 46.3% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 138.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. The 49ers defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
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