Indianapolis @ Kansas City Picks & Props

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%). As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Kansas City's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the league.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Daniel Jones's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 63.4% to 68.0%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (77.4% Adjusted Completion%).

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. Jonathan Taylor's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for RBs. The Colts O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Jonathan Taylor's 93.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 56.8% mark. Jonathan Taylor grades out in the 89th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a fantastic 0.18 per game.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (19.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.5% red zone pass rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.0 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.9 per game) this year.