Jacoby Brissett will be passing plenty if game script says anything in Week 11. The Cardinals are home underdogs to a Niners defense that leans on more zone coverage schemes. Those will give the Arizona QB trouble, as Brissett’s output nosedives vs. zone coverage, including his completion and catchable rates. Not only that, he’s missing top WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Zay Jones. Brissett has only thrown one INT since taking over as QB1 for the injured Kyler Murray but circumstances lean toward a miscue and I love the high price at +120.
Arizona’s offense may not be fantastic, but we saw last week in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams just how badly this 49ers defense can be exposed. Jacoby Brissett has been solid for the Cardinals, too, even against great defenses – and he’s made it work without some of his top weapons available on offense.
There’s just too much unknown with this 49ers offense going back to Purdy, and I don’t think it’ll have a ton of success on what’s been an excellent secondary. We know San Francisco can’t run, either, and the last time these teams met, the 49ers scored just one touchdown. We just need Arizona to score, and it should.
McCaffrey has been cashing the Over on his receiving props all year but it might be time to start fading the star RB when it comes to the passing game. This week he faces the Cardinals who allow the eighth-fewest receptions per game (3.9) to opposing RBs. But the main reason I'm fading C-Mac on his receptions is because QB Brock Purdy and WR Brock Purdy return to the field after missing the last six weeks. Purdy tends to throw downfield more than backup Mac Jones and will likely rely slightly less on McCaffrey in the passing game. Pearsall ranks 12th in the league in yards per route run and his presence gives the Niners a wealth of receiving options which will lead to fewer targets for McCaffrey.
I wanted to back Trey McBride, but I can’t justify the short price at +115. Instead, I’ll take the tight end who led his position in Week 10 with four red-zone targets and scored at +150 in a tougher matchup than he’ll face in Week 11. The Cardinals were down double digits for nearly the entire game last week, and the 49ers’ passing attack could get a boost with Brock Purdy returning. With Brandon Aiyuk unlikely to practice and Ricky Pearsall still sidelined since Week 4, San Francisco will need George Kittle to step up in a must-win divisional matchup. As a field-goal favorite on the road, getting the second-shortest TD prop at +180 is a good price that I'd play to +145/+150.
With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined and Zay Jones out for the year with a torn Achilles, Trey McBride is set to be the focal point of the Cardinals’ attack against San Francisco. McBride is averaging nearly 10 targets per game heading into this NFC West showdown, and the star tight end has found the end zone in five of nine contests.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.. In regards to air yards, Christian McCaffrey grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among RBs this year, accruing an impressive 23.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (59.5% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Cardinals.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.. With a high 20.0% Red Zone Target Share (80th percentile) this year, Jauan Jennings stands as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in football.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this week's game, Brock Purdy is projected by the model to wind up with the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.8. . The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Mac Jones this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.. Mac Jones's 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a material boost in his passing prowess over last season's 166.0 mark.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.. Brock Purdy ranks as one of the leading passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 250.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.. At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 65.6 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The San Francisco 49ers have intercepted 0.10 targets per game this year, grading out as the worst defense in the NFL by this stat
A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. In regards to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.. The Cardinals cornerbacks project as the 7th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.
San Francisco Trends
Arizona Trends