Chicago @ Minnesota Picks & Props

The Bears lead the entire league with 13 interceptions this season, including that one against McCarthy in Week 1. They’ve had an interception in six of nine games this season, and McCarthy has been turnover-prone this season. I’ll take both of those trends to continue in this rivalry matchup.

Jefferson is coming off a pair of quiet performances but the All-Pro wideout is poised for a big game in Week 11. Minnesota is still adjusting to new QB J.J. McCarthy but he's coming off a career-high 242-yard performance and playing indoors at the U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday should lead to improved passing efficiency. While Jefferson was limited to 37 receiving yards on four catches last week, he saw a season-high 12 targets. Expect him to reel in more of those targets this week against a Bears defense that is vulnerable through the air. Chicago is 26th in the NFL in defensive pass DVOA while allowing 160.0 receiving yards per game to wide receivers — the sixth-highest number in the league.

The Chicago quarterback has 140 rushing yards over his last three games and scored on the ground last week. When he faced the Vikings in Week 1, he ran six times for 58 yards and a touchdown. He’s logged 17 red-zone carries this season, with at least one in every game. Only Jalen Hurts has more red-zone carries among quarterbacks this year, making this price a steal for that kind of volume. The Vikings have also allowed at least 24 points in four straight games. This is a great spot to back him again.

Jones is a threat to run it in or catch a touchdown pass, which he did against Chicago in Week 1. In fact, he loves playing against the Bears. He’s scored a TD in both meetings last season – his first year in Minny - and if we go back to his time in Green Bay he has 14 total TDs in 16 career meetings with Chicago. He scored his second touchdown of the year last week in the loss to Baltimore and got the lions share of carries in Week 10, including that four-yard goal line TD. 

The Bears have bullied some bad defensive teams, knocking off the likes of the Giants, Bengals, Ravens, Saints, Commanders, Raiders and Cowboys. Those clubs all sit near the bottom of the NFL in many advanced (and not so advanced) stats. Minnesota lost 27-19 to Baltimore on Sunday but didn’t play poorly, at least not on defense. The Vikings limited Lamar & Co. to just 4.9 yards per play and 2 for 5 in the red zone. However, 13 penalties (101 yards against) on both sides of the ball and three turnovers made things look a lot worse than it was. Chicago QB Caleb Williams faces a blitz-happy Minnesota stop unit that runs a zone base behind that chaos. The second-year QB struggles under duress (and runs around like his ass is on fire) and has significant issues passing against zone schemes. He went 21-of-35 passing for 210 yards and one TD in Week 1.

The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.. This year, the weak Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a colossal 271.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 4th-most in the league.

The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 9.26 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. With a high 96.8% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks among the wideouts with the highest volume in football.. This year, the weak Bears defense has conceded a monstrous 168.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.. The model projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 5.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.. The Chicago Bears defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) to tight ends this year.

The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. This week, D'Andre Swift is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.. With a remarkable 12.3% Target Share (88th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift has been among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. D'Andre Swift has been one of the worst RBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 12th percentile.. The Vikings defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game.