GB 3.5 o51.5
DET -3.5 u51.5
CAR 13.0 o46.0
PHI -13.0 u46.0
ATL 4.5 o46.0
MIN -4.5 u46.0
NYJ 6.5 o45.5
MIA -6.5 u45.5
JAC 3.5 o39.0
TEN -3.5 u39.0
NO -5.0 o39.5
NYG 5.0 u39.5
LV 7.0 o45.5
TB -7.0 u45.5
CLE 6.5 o41.5
PIT -6.5 u41.5
SEA 2.5 o45.0
ARI -2.5 u45.0
CHI 3.5 o44.0
SF -3.5 u44.0
BUF -4.5 o48.0
LA 4.5 u48.0
LAC 3.5 o42.5
KC -3.5 u42.5
CIN -5.5 o50.5
DAL 5.5 u50.5
Miami 2nd AFC East5-7
Buffalo 1st AFC East10-2

Miami @ Buffalo props

Highmark Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

De'Von Achane Receptions Made Props • Miami

D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
+110
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Under
+110
Projection Rating

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a feeble 77.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

De'Von Achane

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.1
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.1

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a feeble 77.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

James Cook Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

J. Cook
running back RB • Buffalo
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.8
Best Odds
Under
-157

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite this week. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have only 122.6 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Bills this year (a lowly 52.5 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.4 per game) this year.

James Cook

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.8
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.8

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite this week. The model projects the Buffalo Bills as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have only 122.6 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Bills this year (a lowly 52.5 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.4 per game) this year.

Tyreek Hill Receptions Made Props • Miami

T. Hill
wide receiver WR • Miami
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.4
Best Odds
Under
-146

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Tyreek Hill's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last year. Tyreek Hill's 55.0% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 71.2% figure.

Tyreek Hill

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.4
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.4

At the moment, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Tyreek Hill's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's pass-catching performance worsened this year, accumulating just 3.9 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last year. Tyreek Hill's 55.0% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 71.2% figure.

Jonnu Smith Receptions Made Props • Miami

J. Smith
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.7
Best Odds
Over
-176

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. In this contest, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets. Jonnu Smith ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Jonnu Smith

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.7
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.7

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. In this contest, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.4 targets. Jonnu Smith ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Khalil Shakir Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

K. Shakir
wide receiver WR • Buffalo
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5
Best Odds
Over
-113

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs. Khalil Shakir's 20.6% Target% this season reflects an impressive gain in his passing attack utilization over last season's 7.8% rate. Khalil Shakir's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a significant progression in his receiving skills over last year's 2.4 figure. Khalil Shakir's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 86.7% to 98.6%. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.6%) vs. wideouts this year (68.6%).

Khalil Shakir

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5

The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to accumulate 7.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs. Khalil Shakir's 20.6% Target% this season reflects an impressive gain in his passing attack utilization over last season's 7.8% rate. Khalil Shakir's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a significant progression in his receiving skills over last year's 2.4 figure. Khalil Shakir's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 86.7% to 98.6%. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.6%) vs. wideouts this year (68.6%).

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Made Props • Buffalo

D. Kincaid
tight end TE • Buffalo
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.4
Best Odds
Over
-188
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.4
Best Odds
Over
-188
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 6.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 35.1. The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 8th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Dalton Kincaid

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.4
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.4

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to earn 6.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends. Dalton Kincaid's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 35.1. The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 8th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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