Best NFL Picks Today

Dallas has allowed the highest dropback success rate while ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA through four weeks, so Daniels is set up for success in his second career start. The Bucs are also massive underdogs, so there will be a positive passing game script for Daniels and the offense. I also particularly value Tampa Bay offensive coordinator and playcaller Zac Robinson being ultra conservative with Daniels, and the rookie posting a 70.4 completion percentage and 3.9 aDoT in Week 4. Look for the short completions to continue piling up against Dallas on Thursday Night Football.

Bhayshul Tuten had two TDs called back last week because of holding penalties but still finished with 19 touches and leads the team in red-zone carries, with nine of the Jaguars’ 15 running back RZ carries this season. I’m going square here and making Tuten my square TD of the week in London. Chris Rodriguez is getting some work, but his 26% snap share isn’t enough to make me bite at his 4.3x price as the backup. I have Tuten at 56% to score as a big favorite and a back who could see 20-plus touches. The Eagles are one of 11 defenses allowing 100-plus rushing yards to opposing running backs. I want nothing to do with the Eagles’ offense with all the injuries, trades, and poor form, and the Jaguars have moved from 2.5-point underdogs to 7-point favorites.

I got Quinshon Judkins at 39%, but have his fair TD price at 46%. He was as short as 2.1x just two games ago and is coming off a game where he handled 83% of all running back opportunities, including a massive seven-target game. Considering how the Jets’ offense performed last week without Breece Hall, Cleveland could easily be playing with the lead and leaning on Judkins for a 4-1 SU push. Near the goal line, it has been all Judkins, as he has all nine of Cleveland’s running back red-zone carries this season, scoring on one and adding another three targets. This offense has been average over the last three weeks, and that’s a compliment. Judkins’ price will fall this week.

I got Drake Maye at 5.25x when this price was 4.7x two weeks ago, and I have a fair price closer to 4.75x. Maye has been using his legs, coming off an eight-carry game, and he's had a carry from inside the 5-yard line in back-to-back games. He has yet to score this year after rushing for four TDs last season. This is a big price for a QB who has averaged more than 25 rushing yards over the last two seasons across a 21-game sample. His legs were a big part of the Patriots knocking off the Bills, and that skill set should continue to be on display with New England needing to dig itself out of an early-season hole. Rhamondre Stevenson is also dealing with a knee issue, which could create even more rushing opportunities for Maye.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

Woody Marks is the better running back in an offense that is back in business with the return of Nico Collins. He played 42% of the snaps last week and had six carries and a score — his second in as many games. Since Week 2, he has more red-zone carries than David Montgomery, who has three RZ carries for a whopping zero yards. Marks also has two targets to Montgomery’s zero inside the 20. The Titans are a top-10 matchup for rushing TDs and have a 66% opponent red-zone scoring rate, while the Texans could be running heavily as 7.5-point road favorites. Marks is a buy for me to 40%.

I got this at 3.56x and would play it to 3.15x, with a fair price of 3x. Isaiah Likely has a massive 32% target share. He had 12 targets last week and hauled in a team-high seven receptions. Jameis Winston is looking a lot better than he did in Week 1, and the second-most targeted tight end in football is a TD threat in Week 5 against a Commanders defense that is giving up 30.5 points per game. It’s not just volume; it’s volume near the goal line, too. No tight end has more red-zone receptions than Likely, who leads an offense that is struggling to run inside the 20 with just one rushing TD in the red zone. This offense is being undervalued in this matchup, and Likely is the best target at 32% or better.

I got this at 4.3x and would play it to 4x. The Steelers are passing the ball at an above-average rate and used 2-TE sets at a season-high 42% last week. Darnell Washington has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has 94 yards and a score over that stretch. He also had two red-zone targets in Week 4 and saw just as many targets as Pat Freiermuth. Washington is a human refrigerator who faces a Colts defense coming back from London and ranks as a Top-10 matchup for tight ends. Indy is also allowing 392 total yards per game (31st) and 26 points per game (22nd). The Pittsburgh tight end is a great mid-range TD target at this price for a Week 5 card.

Even the Cardinals can score against the Lions, who are allowing 31.8 points per game and have given up the sixth-most rushing TDs to opposing running backs. Tyler Allgeier had 10 opportunities last week, turning them into 49 yards and a score. Both Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love are getting looks in the red zone, with the backup accounting for eight of their 21 red-zone opportunities this year. However, Love's health is the most important factor this week. The rookie running back hurt his ankle in Week 4, but it wasn't the same ankle he injured in the preseason that kept him from taking any warm-up snaps. Love is expected to be limited in practice this week but should be good to play. Still, if he's limited, Allgeier could poach more red-zone opportunities against the softest defense in football. I got this at 3.4x early in the week and would play it to 3.2x.

I’m not even going to overthink this one. Give me Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at 57%, as I price him closer to 61%, and we almost never see this kind of edge in his touchdown market. I’m old enough to remember the Ravens walking into Lambeau Field last season needing a win with Tyler Huntley under center, and Henry responded by rushing for four touchdowns. In any red-zone scenario with a backup quarterback under center, Henry is going to see a heavy workload, making him the obvious focal point to get Baltimore into the end zone.

Josh Allen is trading at 49% on Kalshi to score a touchdown, and I’ll hit the button at that number, as I price Allen closer to 56% to find the end zone on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams. With Trent McDuffie on the perimeter and Quentin Lake matching up against Dalton Kincaid in the red zone, Joe Brady could have a few more designed runs in the playbook against the Rams. Los Angeles matches up well defensively with the Bills’ other red-zone targets, which could create more opportunities for Allen to use his legs near the goal line.