Kansas City @ Minnesota props

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projections to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Rashee Rice has been among the best possession receivers in the league, catching a fantastic 73.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 78th percentile among wideouts. This year, the poor Vikings pass defense has allowed a monstrous 78.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the highest rate in football.

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. With a remarkable 8.3 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson stands as one of the top WRs in the league in the NFL.

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. T.J. Hockenson's 6.4 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a a substantial growth in his receiving skills over last year's 3.5 rate. This year, the weak Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 84.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are anticipated by the projections to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Isiah Pacheco's 8.6% Target Share this season conveys a a noteworthy gain in his air attack usage over last season's 2.2% rate. Since the start of last season, the anemic Vikings pass defense has surrendered a whopping 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-highest rate in football.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 68.5% Route% this year signifies a a substantial decline in his passing attack volume over last year's 83.1% rate. Travis Kelce's 65.3% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a a noteworthy reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 74.6% mark. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been terrific this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in football.

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Since the start of last season, the feeble Chiefs pass defense has conceded a monstrous 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Justin Watson has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Skyy Moore has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Jerick McKinnon has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

K.J. Osborn has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Addison has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Kadarius Toney has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.