Both UNLV and Boise State have trended toward Unders to close the season, the Rebels cashing three Unders in their last four games while the Broncos hit four Unders in their last five games. In UNLV's case, that has been a testament of strength, its defense providing the strength to charge into the Mountain West title game. For Boise State, that has been a weakness, its offense falling short too often of late.
Boise should attempt to lean into its ground game against a UNLV defense that simply cannot stop the run (132nd in EPA per rush allowed). Madsen hasn't played in over a month, and it'll be a rainy and cold Mountain West title game.