Northwestern vs Ohio State Picks & Props
NW vs OSU Picks
NCAAF PicksThe Ohio State Buckeyes have lost two straight games, and have allowed a total of 71 points over their last two games, a stunning reversal for a defense that had previously allowed just 13.4 ppg over its first seven games. The Northwestern Wildcats are not who a struggling defense wants to get right against, putting up 421.2 yards and 31.0 ppg. I like Northwestern to cover +13.5 at up to 55%.
The Northwestern Wildcats have played above this total in every game this season except one -- their loss last week to the Iowa Hawkeyes, perhaps the team least conducive to scoring in major college football. The Ohio State Buckeyes still put up 28 points against the Oregon Ducks last week behind freshman quarterback Luke Fahey. These are two of the top 20 offenses in the country in adjusted EPA, and that has me trading the Over up to 47.5 points.
Outside of Iowa, no team has held Northwestern to fewer than 23 points this year. And while I might normally be worried about Ohio State changing that, the Buckeyes have seemingly lost a step defensively. Even before the two-game losing streak, Ohio State's defense hasn't quite at the level of Iowa or Indiana, so Northwestern has already faced more imposing units. The Buckeyes also won't grind the game to a halt in the same way Iowa did. The Wildcats are going to have more success than expected here. I like their team total Over at up to 60%.
Along with combining the Northwestern Wildcats to cover with the Over, I'm also going to take them to cover the first-half spread on Saturday. This combos naturally to begin with, but it's also appetizing because the spread on the first half is just over a touchdown at +7.5.
NW vs OSU Consensus Picks
55% picking Northwestern
Total Picks NW 214, OSU 175
NW vs OSU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
NW
N. Marchiol
(QB)
o163.5 Passing Yards
174.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.0
DIFFERENCE
23.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
OSU
L. Fahey
(QB)
o232.5 Passing Yards
242.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
21.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
NW
C. Komolafe
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
61.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
24.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
OSU
B. Jackson
(RB)
o89.5 Rushing Yards
95.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
23.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OSU
B. Jackson
(RB)
o14.5 Receiving Yards
27.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.9
DIFFERENCE
26.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NW
G. Wilde
(WR)
o52.5 Receiving Yards
64.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.4
DIFFERENCE
26.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OSU
M. Williams
(TE)
o12.5 Receiving Yards
19.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
23.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NW
C. Komolafe
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
12.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
19.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
J. Smith
(WR)
o104.5 Receiving Yards
104.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
18.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OSU
D. McCuin
(WR)
o38.5 Receiving Yards
41.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
18.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NW
L. Dehnicke
(TE)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
33.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
18.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
OSU
B. Jackson
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions
3.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
15.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
OSU
D. McCuin
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.23 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
1.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
J. Smith
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
6.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-3.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
NW
G. Wilde
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
OSU
M. Williams
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions
1.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
OSU
B. Jackson
(RB)
u18.5 Carries
18.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
12.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
NW
N. Marchiol
(QB)
u17.5 Completions
16.75 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
6.92%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 7-0 in Buckeyes last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Buckeyes last 5 home games.
Over is 7-0 in Wildcats last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-0 in Buckeyes last 5 games as a home favorite.
Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
ROI Trends
NW vs OSU Top User Picks
'Cubbybear21' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
Cubbybear21 is #1 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +4950 units on the season.
'lsbellmom' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
lsbellmom is #10 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +3800 units on the season.
'kowalabear' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
kowalabear is #3 on picking games that Ohio State is in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'gap824' is picking Ohio State to cover (-10.5)
gap824 is #4 on picking games that Ohio State is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.
'capmaster1' is picking Ohio State to cover (-10.5)
capmaster1 is #5 on picking games that Ohio State is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4450 units on the season.
'Alfiekutya' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
Alfiekutya is #6 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'dmoney1981' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
dmoney1981 is #7 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.
'famman1' is picking Northwestern to cover (+14.5)
famman1 is #7 on picking games that Ohio State is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4350 units on the season.
'Paintedface' is picking Ohio State to cover (-10.5)
Paintedface is #8 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +3800 units on the season.
'MrBaggins' is picking Northwestern to cover (+10.5)
MrBaggins is #9 on picking games that Northwestern is in with a record of (5-3-0) and +3800 units on the season.
'bishqqq' is picking Ohio State to cover (-10.5)
bishqqq is #9 on picking games that Ohio State is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.