Tennessee vs Texas A&M Picks & Props
TENN vs TAM Picks
NCAAF PicksTexas A&M is averaging just 16 points per game in its six games against SEC opponents, and now has to host a Tennessee team that ranks 11th in the nation in scoring defense (15.9) and just held No. 6 Kentucky to six points in a 28-point blowout win. The Vols are far from world-beaters on offense but are getting enough on the ground (17th in rushing yards per game) to be trusted if they continue to control the game with their defense.
Both teams have been relying on run-heavy ball-control offenses. They'll each look to control clock and that means fewer possessions and fewer points.
Tennessee runs nearly twice as often as it passes and MacIntyre has seen his passing attempts drop each of the last three games. Coach Josh Heupel doesn't seem satisfied with the QB play and could make another switch.
Texas A&M ranks 13th in adjusted defensive EPA per play, so the matchup deserves respect. However, the Aggies allow 7.36 yards per opposing dropback, compared with a rushing success rate allowed of just 36.8%. My read is that Tennessee’s cleaner route to an explosive touchdown could come through the air. The price is reflective of his volume but I can very much see a scenario where the Vols spend some time chasing this game which makes this price point all that more appealing.
It's too bad it will be clear and cool in Texas Saturday afternoon, because this has all the makings of an epic bad weather game. Both teams will run the ball and control clock as we have a low-scoring physical rockfight. All that's missing is the snow and mud.
TENN vs TAM Consensus Picks
TENN vs TAM Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
TENN
G. MacIntyre
(QB)
o169.5 Passing Yards
192.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+22.9
DIFFERENCE
26.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o180.5 Passing Yards
200.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.1
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
K. Edwards
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
34.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
26.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o121.5 Rushing Yards
133.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.2
DIFFERENCE
23.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o18.5 Rushing Yards
23.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
21.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
o42.5 Rushing Yards
45.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
20.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
o50.5 Receiving Yards
72.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+22.2
DIFFERENCE
26.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
57.32 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.8
DIFFERENCE
26.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TENN
D. Brame
(TE)
o18.5 Receiving Yards
24.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
24.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
44.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.4
DIFFERENCE
22.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
B. Staley
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
9.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TENN
M. Matthews
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
M. Craver
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-13.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TENN
D. Bishop
(RB)
o24.5 Carries
27.50 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.0
DIFFERENCE
17.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
o9.5 Carries
10.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
10.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o9.5 Carries
9.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
1.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o15.5 Completions
17.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
18.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
TENN
G. MacIntyre
(QB)
u15.5 Completions
15.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-3.81%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Aggies last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 9-1 in Aggies last 10 games as a home underdog.
Volunteers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.