Georgia vs Mississippi Picks & Props
UGA vs MISS Picks
NCAAF PicksWith the way Georgia's defense is playing, I like the Bulldogs to cover up to -6.5. Georgia ranks top 20 nationally in available yards percentage (33.5%), havoc rate (19.4%), and success rate allowed (35.2%). Ole Miss struggled against the the best defense it played, Texas. If Ole Miss can't score, it can't cover
This game total is a little high for my liking, and I would take the Under at 55.5 or better. This the best defense Ole Miss has faced and with Kewan Lacy out, Georgia will be able to focus on stopping Trinidad Chambliss. And while the Rebels defense has been shaky, Georgia is averaging just 23.6 ppg in its last three games.
I would play the Ole Miss TT Under at 24.5 or better. The Rebels continue to rely on Trinidad Chambliss to put on a cape and I don't think that's going to work against this Georgia defense. The Bulldogs have allowed more than 24 points just once this season. The Bulldogs are 16th in the country in havoc rate (19.4%) and should be all over Chambliss.
Georgia is 3-0 ATS away from home this season and completely shut down both Alabama and Florida's offenses. While Trinidad Chambliss is the best QB the Bulldogs have seen, this is also the best defense Ole Miss has faced. And with the Rebels' defense ranked 88th in EPA per rush, Georgia can run away with this game.
UGA vs MISS Consensus Picks
UGA vs MISS Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
UGA
G. Stockton
(QB)
o219.5 Passing Yards
239.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.4
DIFFERENCE
25.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. Chambliss
(QB)
o259.5 Passing Yards
267.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
15.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MISS
S. Mills-Knight
(RB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
40.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
26.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
N. Frazier
(RB)
u57.5 Rushing Yards
49.53 UNDER
PROJECTION
-8.0
DIFFERENCE
24.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MISS
M. Frazier
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
50.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
23.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UGA
D. Phillips Jr.
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
50.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
22.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UGA
G. Stockton
(QB)
u24.5 Rushing Yards
20.18 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.3
DIFFERENCE
21.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
T. Chambliss
(QB)
u19.5 Rushing Yards
17.58 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
16.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
C. Cunningham
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
46.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+16.9
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UGA
T. Taylor
(WR)
o32.5 Receiving Yards
47.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.6
DIFFERENCE
26.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UGA
L. Humphreys
(WR)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
35.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.6
DIFFERENCE
25.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
H. Fields
(WR)
o38.5 Receiving Yards
46.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
24.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
D. Alexander
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
77.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
24.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MISS
C. Odom
(TE)
o35.5 Receiving Yards
43.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
23.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UGA
L. Luckie
(TE)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
21.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
18.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UGA
C. Dandridge
(WR)
o38.5 Receiving Yards
38.55 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-15.74%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Ole Miss.
Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 in Bulldogs last 7 games following a ATS win.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games as a road underdog.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.