Notre Dame vs Navy Picks & Props
ND vs NAVY Picks
NCAAF PicksNotre Dame has averaged 42.2 points per game against Navy since Marcus Freeman took over, so I'd play the Fighting Irish's team total Over at 44.5 or better. Navy has its worst defense in years, ranked 102nd by SP+, and Notre Dame has hammered low-end opponents. The Fighting Irish have scored 49+ points in three of their four games against teams unlikely to make a bowl. Navy is 2-5 and expected to miss a bowl game.
I like Notre Dame to cover for the fifth time in six games against Navy since Marcus Freeman took over, but only at -30.5 or better. Freeman has had zero problems blowing out the Midshipmen, beating Navy teams that won 10+ games each of the last two seasons by an average of 38 points. This year's Navy team is 2-5 and likely won't even make a bowl game.
Given the recent history between these two programs, the Over is playable up to 56.5. Notre Dame has owned Navy under Marcus Freeman, averaging 42.2 points per game against the Midshipmen. The Fighting Irish will do the bulk of the scoring for the Over against a Navy defense ranked 102nd by SP+.
Under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS against Navy, outscoring the Midshipmen by an average of 42.2 to 13. This year's Navy defense is arguably the worst Notre Dame has played under Freeman, allowing 29.1 points per game. The Fighting Irish can score 45+ against Navy, and I think they'll do the bulk of that damage in the first half.
ND vs NAVY Consensus Picks
49% picking Notre Dame
Total Picks ND 203, NAVY 210
ND vs NAVY Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ND
C. Carr
(QB)
o249.5 Passing Yards
287.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+37.7
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
NAVY
J. Gutierrez
(QB)
o72.5 Passing Yards
105.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+33.1
DIFFERENCE
26.3%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
NAVY
J. Gutierrez
(QB)
u89.5 Rushing Yards
71.72 UNDER
PROJECTION
-17.8
DIFFERENCE
26%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
ND
N. James Jr.
(RB)
u74.5 Rushing Yards
70.52 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.0
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Greathouse
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
69.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.2
DIFFERENCE
27.09%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
J. Faison
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
81.46 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.0
DIFFERENCE
26.56%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
ND
M. Gilbert
(WR)
u46.5 Receiving Yards
42.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.4
DIFFERENCE
18.93%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
ND
J. Greathouse
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.31 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.99%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Navy.
Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AC.
Over is 5-0 in Fighting Irish last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Irish last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
ROI Trends
ND vs NAVY Top User Picks
'kowalabear' is picking Navy to cover (+29.5)
kowalabear is #1 on picking games that Navy is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +5950 units on the season.
'kozman625' is picking Notre Dame to cover (-29.5)
kozman625 is #2 on picking games that Navy is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.
'dawgs91' is picking Navy to cover (+29.5)
dawgs91 is #4 on picking games that Notre Dame is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'miacity' is picking Navy to cover (+29.5)
miacity is #4 on picking games that Navy is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.
'bonny2bag' is picking Notre Dame to cover (-29.5)
bonny2bag is #5 on picking games that Navy is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'ASkinsFanInDixi' is picking Navy to cover (+29.5)
ASkinsFanInDixi is #5 on picking games that Notre Dame is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'Brayy_Wyatt' is picking Notre Dame to cover (-29.5)
Brayy_Wyatt is #7 on picking games that Notre Dame is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'HookmanHearns' is picking Notre Dame to cover (-29.5)
HookmanHearns is #7 on picking games that Navy is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'rollonotes' is picking Navy to cover (+29.5)
rollonotes is #9 on picking games that Notre Dame is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.