Oregon State vs Fresno State Picks & Props
ORST vs FRES Picks
NCAAF PicksOregon State has scored 33+ points against every non-P4 opponent this season, so I'd play the Beavers' team total Over at 32.5 or better. Jesse Legree leads the country in receiving yards (1,040), and Fresno State has given up 38+ points in its two games against offenses ranked top 40 by SP+ (Oregon State is ranked No. 37).
Oregon State tends to hit the Over, but this is one of the best defenses the Beavers have seen, so I'd play the Under at 55.5 or better. Fresno State has allowed more than 26 points to just one G6 opponent this year. The Bulldogs' offense also doesn't match up well with the Beavers, and on a rainy night, their inability to run the ball could kill the offense.
Oregon State has a chance to make a statement and get ranked with a win, so I like the Beavers to cover up to -8.5. Jesse Legree is the best player in the G6, but QB Braden Atkinson isn't far behind. They have the Beavers ranked top 10 nationally in offensive success rate (50.3%). Fresno State won't be able to keep up, especially late.
Fresno State hasn't played a very difficult schedule, especially in terms of the offenses it's faced. Five of the seven teams the Bulldogs have played are ranked outside the top 100 on offense by SP+. The two that are ranked inside the top 100 both scored 38+ points on them. Oregon State is ranked 37th and is fifth nationally in available yards percentage (63.1%). Fresno State doesn't have the offense to keep this close.
ORST vs FRES Consensus Picks
ORST vs FRES Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
ORST
B. Atkinson
(QB)
u309.5 Passing Yards
281.74 UNDER
PROJECTION
-27.8
DIFFERENCE
25.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
FRES
J. Mandal
(QB)
u237.5 Passing Yards
224.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-13.1
DIFFERENCE
22.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ORST
A. Newberry
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
58.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.4
DIFFERENCE
25.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ORST
C. Hatcher Jr.
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
33.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
24.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FRES
R. Luke
(RB)
o45.5 Rushing Yards
49.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
16.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FRES
B. Donelson
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
40.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
1.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FRES
J. Mandal
(QB)
o13.5 Rushing Yards
14.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORST
D. Temple
(TE)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
27.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.4
DIFFERENCE
27.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FRES
R. Luke
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
21.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.6
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORST
J. Legree
(WR)
o108.5 Receiving Yards
132.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+24.2
DIFFERENCE
26.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FRES
J. McClain
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
37.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.4
DIFFERENCE
24.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORST
E. Olsen
(TE)
o41.5 Receiving Yards
49.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
23.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FRES
J. Freeman
(WR)
o64.5 Receiving Yards
65.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
14.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORST
A. Butler
(WR)
u32.5 Receiving Yards
31.14 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.4
DIFFERENCE
10.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FRES
E. Avit
(WR)
o53.5 Receiving Yards
54.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
10.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FRES
R. Luke
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
2.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
20.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ORST
D. Temple
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
18.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ORST
J. Legree
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
7.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
16.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ORST
A. Butler
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
2.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
16.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FRES
J. McClain
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
13.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ORST
E. Olsen
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
3.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-4.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FRES
E. Avit
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-5.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FRES
J. Freeman
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
FRES
R. Luke
(RB)
u9.5 Carries
8.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
ORST
A. Newberry
(RB)
u12.5 Carries
12.26 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ORST
B. Atkinson
(QB)
u24.5 Completions
24.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.92%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Beavers last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 5-0 in Beavers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Under is 7-0 in Bulldogs last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Beavers last 5 games in October.
Under is 7-1 in Beavers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Beavers last 7 games overall.