Baylor vs UCF Picks & Props
BAY vs UCF Picks
NCAAF PicksIf you’re looking to get in and out of this matchup, Baylor +2.5 in the first half may be the look for you. The Knights could come out of the gate sluggish after beating the Cougars, while Baylor’s fast-paced offense should overwhelm this Knights defense. Meanwhile, the rock-solid Bears defense should be able to contain the Knights’ offense.
If you’re looking to get in and out of this matchup, Baylor +2.5 in the first half may be the look for you. The Knights could come out of the gate sluggish after beating the Cougars, while Baylor’s fast-paced offense should overwhelm this Knights defense. Meanwhile, the rock-solid Bears defense should be able to contain the Knights’ offense.
Baylor’s fast-paced offense should create plenty of scoring opportunities against a UCF defense that ranks 118th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. While the Bears boast a strong defense, the Knights should contribute enough offensively to help push this total higher, with DJ Lagway leading Baylor’s scoring attack.
UCF is coming off the biggest win in program history, but the Knights could be in for a reality check against Baylor. The Bears get the coaching bump after firing Dave Aranda, while UCF faces a potential letdown after its Super Bowl victory. Baylor is the side to back.
The Bears should enter this game with a little extra pep in their step after their coach was fired, looking to take down a team coming off its Super Bowl a week ago. Baylor plays extremely fast and should be able to jump out to an early lead and keep its foot on the gas.
I'll combo Baylor +1.5, first-half +2.5 and Over 47.5 for a fun 4.78x sweat!
BAY vs UCF Consensus Picks
BAY vs UCF Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
UCF
K. Jenkins
(QB)
u242.5 Passing Yards
215.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-26.5
DIFFERENCE
25.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Lagway
(QB)
u249.5 Passing Yards
242.24 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.3
DIFFERENCE
18.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCF
K. Jenkins
(QB)
u19.5 Rushing Yards
12.58 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.9
DIFFERENCE
25.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
BAY
C. Knighten
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
35.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
20.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCF
D. Watson
(RB)
u67.5 Rushing Yards
66.49 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
17.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
BAY
D. Pendergrass
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
37.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
-10.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
J. Porter
(WR)
o17.5 Receiving Yards
24.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
25.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCF
J. Derry
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
71.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.5
DIFFERENCE
25.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCF
W. Charles
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
32.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
20.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
L. Brown IV
(WR)
u40.5 Receiving Yards
38.03 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.5
DIFFERENCE
18.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
BAY
G. Freeman
(WR)
o82.5 Receiving Yards
86.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
18.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BAY
L. Brown IV
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
2.92 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
10.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BAY
G. Freeman
(WR)
o6.5 Receptions
7.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
9.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
BAY
J. Porter
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
1.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.38%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-1 in Knights last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games as a favorite.