Purdue vs UCLA Picks & Props
PUR vs UCLA Picks
NCAAF PicksPurdue very easily could've won last week as a home dog vs Wake Forest, but went on to lose in double OT. What's the spread here if Purdue wins that game? Probably not 14.5, so there's value there. UCLA has had misleading final scores in its two wins season. My power ratings only made this spread 11 points making this one of my biggest disparities of the week.
Purdue is improved in year two under head coach Barry Odom. Last week they nearly pulled a small upset at home versus Wake Forest before losing by two.
Wake Forest converted a 4th-and-15 in the second overtime. Change that one unlikely conversion and Purdue enters this game 2-0. You have to ask would the Boilermakers still be catching more than two touchdowns here? I have my doubts.
Purdue dropped 455 total yards and 29 first downs on a good Wake Forest defense in Week 2. The market isn't giving enough respect to Fame Ijeboi's dominance at running back and how he opens up the passing attack.
Purdue (2-0 O/U) quarterback Ryan Browne is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and 323 passing yards per game for an attack ranked 15th in passing success rate. Fame Ijeboi is a star at running back. As for UCLA, the Bruins have racked up 10 rushing TDs already, and Purdue's defense hasn't shown much verve.
I'd play Purdue at anything over two touchdowns, as there's been a lot to like about the Boilermakers' start to the season. The offense is clicking (29th in EPA per play) led by running back Fame Ijeboi, who leads the Big Ten with 19 missed tackles forced, six more than any other rusher.
UCLA has struggled out of the gates, waiting until the fourth quarter to pull away from teams. Purdue's offense (40 ppg) has shown enough life to expect a close enough game.
PUR vs UCLA Consensus Picks
52% picking Purdue
Total Picks PUR 209, UCLA 193
PUR vs UCLA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
PUR
+13.5 spread
13.89
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-2.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
52.5 Total
54.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.9
DIFFERENCE
10.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o182.5 Passing Yards
206.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+23.9
DIFFERENCE
25.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
u49.5 Rushing Yards
45.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.8
DIFFERENCE
17.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
57.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+28.4
DIFFERENCE
26.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PUR
X. Townsend
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
51.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
25.87%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
59.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.2
DIFFERENCE
25.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
L. Ellis
(WR)
o28.5 Receiving Yards
33.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.1
DIFFERENCE
21.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PUR
F. Ijeboi
(RB)
u21.5 Receiving Yards
20.94 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
19.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
13.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
13.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
4.16 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
19.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
PUR
X. Townsend
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
10.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
1.54 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-18.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
u10.5 Carries
9.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
11.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o15.5 Completions
16.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.07%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 4-0 in Boilermakers last 4 games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bruins last 9 games as a home favorite.
Under is 8-1 in Bruins last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 11-2 in Bruins last 13 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 21-6 in Bruins last 27 games on grass.
Under is 6-1 in Bruins last 7 games in September.
Under is 16-5 in Bruins last 21 games as a favorite.
ROI Trends
PUR vs UCLA Top User Picks
'bluetide007' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
bluetide007 is #1 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Ollywood' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
Ollywood is #1 on picking games that Purdue is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'fishercz' is picking UCLA to cover (-14.5)
fishercz is #3 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'charro23' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
charro23 is #4 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'snuggles' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
snuggles is #4 on picking games that Purdue is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'nbahoops' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
nbahoops is #7 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'geoff1954' is picking UCLA to cover (-13.5)
geoff1954 is #8 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.
'Foodbank' is picking Purdue to cover (+14.5)
Foodbank is #9 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.