Texas @ Kentucky Picks & Props

Boley struggled in his lone game against a team with a pass rush, completing 10 of 19 attempts for 124 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions against South Carolina.

The Longhorns have a vaunted defensive front led by Colin Simmons and play well on the back end (seventh in PFF’s coverage grade), so Boley will find it tough sledding out there in Week 8.

Boley is completing 57.1% of his passes with only two big-time throws and seven (!) turnover-worthy passes. The redshirt freshman is learning on the job, and Texas's tough defense is ready to dole out some tutoring.

There aren't many things more foolish than betting on Kentucky and Mark Stoops coming off a bye week.

Under Stoops, the Wildcats are 2-15 ATS against SEC opponents after a bye and are 1-8 in such instances as an underdog. Additionally, the Kentucky offense has little talent on the outside and struggle to move the ball consistently. 

Defensively, few teams are allowing more chunk plays through the air and Arch Manning should have plenty of time to throw against a pass rush that has just seven sacks through five games, and two in three SEC contests.

Texas won't let Kentucky put up points, and the Longhorns will leave Lexington with at least a three-score victory. 

Kentucky may as well not have an offense. The Wildcats rank near the bottom 10% in the country in passing effectiveness, but their run game is poor enough that they have to keep throwing the ball. Hence ranking in the bottom 20% in the country in late-down success rate. Texas should mail in this game, but the Longhorns defense will not need to be dialed in to keep the Wildcats to only two scores. That is nearly a default.