The top two seeds in the AFC clash in the Conference Championship, with the New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos on Sunday, January 25.
Denver’s pass defense isn't nearly as good as advertised, and my Patriots vs. Broncos props feature three New England players to cover you throughout this tilt.
Patriots vs Broncos props for the AFC Championship Game
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Drake Maye |
Over 223.5 passing yards | -114 |
| Kayshon Boutte |
Over 35.5 receiving yards | -114 |
| Austin Hooper |
Over 9.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Drake Maye Over 223.5 passing yards (-114)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has cleared this total in 14 of 19 games, and while there have been the noted playoff hiccups, he did pace the league in EPA+CPOE composite and yards per attempt during the regular season.
This matchup against the Denver Broncos might not be as tough as it is being billed, either.
Denver ranked 12th in both pass defensive DVOA and EPA per dropback out of their Week 12 bye, and then allowed Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen to air it out for 283 passing yards in the Divisional Round.
Kayshon Boutte Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Patriots receiver Kayshon Boutte tops the wideout corps in offensive snaps during the postseason and climbed to a massive 83% snap share in the Divisional Round.
He’s also cashed in on the opportunity by catching seven of nine targets for 141 yards.
As noted, I also peg the Denver Broncos pass defense closer to middling than elite, and they’ve allowed
Austin Hooper Over 9.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Broncos surrendered the ninth-most receiving yards on the seventh-most targets to opposing tight ends during the regular season, and New England Patriots tight end Austin Hooper recorded double-digit receiving yards in 11 of 18 games.
Hooper isn’t heavily involved, obviously, but he does have a high-end 13.3 yards per reception, 9.6 aDoT, and 80.8% catch rate.
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Patriots vs Broncos prop betting card
- Maye Over 223.5 passing yards (-114)
- Boutte Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Hooper Over 9.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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