Purdue @ Notre Dame Picks & Props

When Notre Dame leans into the run, as it did a game late into the season last week, Jadarian Price's workload jumps more than Jeremiyah Love's does. Price took 12 carries for 68 yards and two scores last week, the scores standing out. Price got multiple opportunities within the red zone, not to mention he got to the one-yard line on another drive.

The odds on the senior tight end are too good for me to ignore in Week 4. Eli Raridon continues to be a productive receiver for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as he caught four more balls for 85 yards against Texas A&M last Saturday. Notre Dame comes in as a 25.5-point favorite and should have little trouble scoring points against the Purdue Boilermakers, who gave up 33 against USC last week in their first meeting with a power conference opponent. At a nice plus number, I’m taking Raridon to finally get into the endzone.

Notre Dame is a 25-point favorite at Pinnacle, but I believe the line should be closer to -28.5 against Purdue on Saturday. The Irish might be the best 0-2 team in college football history, and if they want any chance at the playoffs, they’ll need to impress the committee. That means they have every reason to run up the score. For Purdue, it’s simply the wrong opponent at the wrong time. After facing Miami and Texas A&M in his first two starts, CJ Carr should find this Boilermakers defense much easier to exploit. 

Purdue’s going to score points here, but Notre Dame will have a strong day offensively as well. USC ran the ball with success using two running backs, and Notre Dame will unleash Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. 

CJ Carr showed he can air it out a bit against the Aggies, and will punish a Purdue defense ranked 126th in EPA/pass. 

The Boilermakers will find some big plays in the passing game and make this game interesting as well. They’ll score 20+ and help push this one closer to 60 points. 

I simply don’t trust the Irish defense. They’re not only failing to get stops, but they rank in the 100s nationally in defensive success, defensive net EPA/drive, and net field position. Oh, they also rank 123rd in pass defense success rate, and have one of the lowest havoc rates in college football.

Purdue is finding great success in the passing game, ranked 32nd in passing success rate and 40th in net EPA/drive. The Boilermakers are notching explosive plays both in the air and on the ground, and are in the Top 25 in third down conversion rate.

Notre Dame should win, but by four touchdowns? There’s nothing I’ve seen so far that makes me think the Irish are that much better than Purdue. Take the points.