UConn vs Duke Picks & Props

Tarris Reed Jr has carried UConn in the tourney. He dropped 20 points against Michigan State's sturdy frontcourt in the Sweet 16 and had an incredible 31-point, 27-rebound performance in the first round. The senior center has seen an expanded offensive role in big games, dropping 17+ points in UConn's previous two contests against Big East champ St. John's. Duke center Patrick Ngongba II is dealing with a lingering foot injury that has limited him to 13 and 17 ineffective minutes over the last two rounds. With Ngongba clearly less than full strength, expect Reed to take advantage. 

Dame Sarr has emerged as one of the top defenders in the country and his playing time has surged down the stretch. The wing is averaging 28.7 minutes and 4.7 rebounds per game over the last 15 contests. Sarr uses his 6-foot-8 frame and athleticism to defend multiple positions and compete on the boards. He pulled down 14 boards over the last two rounds and UConn has struggled on the glass against top-tier rebounding teams.

Caleb Foster shocked the world when he returned to the floor on Friday, just three weeks after undergoing foot surgery. The senior guard had an efficient 11 points with two assists in 19 minutes. That said, Foster didn't log a single steal which isn't surprising since that isn't really a part of his game. Foster has tallied just four steals in his last 23 contests. It's likely that his minutes will be limited and UConn ranks 67th in the country in steals allowed per game (5.8). Even with this prop juiced to -170, it still has value with how rarely Foster swipes the ball.

Duke’s defense in this tournament has been so poor at times that it has had to revert to a zone to get stops. UConn can exploit that, ranking in the 98th percentile in points per mid-range attempt and shooting 43.2% in those situations. The Huskies can also hurt the zone on the glass, sitting 14th in offensive rebound rate since March 1. If the Blue Devils have another outing where they’re turning it over and struggling to defend, the Huskies will reach another Final Four. 

Cameron Boozer rebounds the heck out of the ball, grabbing double-digit boards in six of his last seven contests. The Naismith National Player of the Year frontrunner can be projected to fill an outsized role on the glass with teammate Patrick Ngongba still on the mend. Ngongba, whose 15.3% rebounding percentage trails only Boozer’s 17.7% among starters, averaged only 15 minutes in his two games since returning from a foot injury. The Duke Blue Devils’ elite defense (second in adjusted efficiency per KenPom) can force a streaky UConn offense into tough looks, necessitating opportunities on the boards for Boozer.

I’m a little shocked at this point total as Alex Karaban is a big problem for this Duke defense. The Blue Devils may not have a perfect solve for UConn’s inside-out forward and Cameron Boozer isn’t the best option to chase Karaban around and defend off screens. And even if Duke decides to go back to zone – as it has against St. John’s and Siena – Karaban is a dead eye threat from beyond the arc. Projections all sit north of this total, with a high closer to 15 points. Even that feels a little low.