NBA Picks

Maybe Garland has just been healthier this month. Maybe there’s some extra juice after the Cleveland Cavaliers gave up on him at the trade deadline. Either way, his strong March numbers have solidified the Clippers as a dangerous potential first-round playoff opponent.

With that in mind, the Garland points prop is the standout pick for me today. He poured in 30 points for L.A. on Friday against the Indiana Pacers, making 10 of his 19 shots, including six 3-pointers, and he’s gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings. I’m buying into the crafty point guard’s 21.8 PPG average in March, and a lackluster Milwaukee squad is an ideal opponent here. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed out (knee), and there’s no reason for him to play considering the Bucks are 2-8 over their last 10 and out of the play-in race. Take the Clippers to pull away at Fiserv Forum.

The quickest tempo team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.. The Pacers have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games on their home court, which ought to increase plays for the Heat.. The Heat check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 20 games on their home court.. The Pacers are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from being pitted against the quickest pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Heat).

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have logged 18.6 points per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Washington Wizards, designating this as a favorable matchup for offensive production.. The 4th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Trail Blazers.. The Portland Trail Blazers are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from squaring off against the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo away team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Wizards).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out best in in the league with 14.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.. Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 6.0 foul shots per game (3rd-highest in the league) vs. the Wizards, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

In regard to 3-pointers, the Portland Trail Blazers's lackluster 34.0% rate of made threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the NBA this year.

The short-handed Celtics could have trouble on the perimeter. Charlotte has made the most 3-pointers in the NBA and has the third-best accuracy from three. Boston’s defense is in the bottom half of the league in both categories, even when everyone is suited up and healthy.

In comparison to last season's 4.9 clip, Neemias Queta's points per game have risen this season to 9.8.. The Boston Celtics rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Ziaire Williams has scored 16+ points in five straight games and Over 12.5 in nine of his last 12. He'll be Brooklyn's go-to scorer tonight with Michael Porter Jr. sidelined.

The Kings are dreadful defensively, allowing 122.9 ppg post All-Star break. Williams will cruise to Over 12.5 points tonight.

The Sacramento Kings check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.. The Kings will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-most sluggish pace home offense in the league this year (the Brooklyn Nets).. Over the last 5 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 0.8 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Brooklyn Nets, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

Tristan da Silva has seen an increase in playing time as Magic starters have gone down with injuries, and he's seized the opportunity. Da Silva's averaging 14.3 ppg in March while scoring Over 10.5 points in four straight and 11 of his last 15 outings.

The Toronto Raptors check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Put simply, this isn’t likely a matchup for basketball purists who love slick offense. That makes the Under a value pick tonight. It’s 2-7 in the Pelicans’ last nine contests, and 41-32 for the Rockets this season. Houston is allowing just 110.2 PPG this year, the fourth-best mark in the league, and should lock down a New Orleans offense that may be without Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III again here. 

Meanwhile, the Rockets’ over-reliance on Kevin Durant to get buckets has been a storyline all year, and they’re still stuck in the bottom half of the NBA with 114.1 PPG.

The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league while on their home court this year with respect to three-point shots.. This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 21.7% on threes (weakest in the league) vs. the Rockets, identifying this as a challenging matchup.. The Pelicans are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the 2nd-slowest tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Rockets).

Karl-Anthony Towns is virtually a lock for a double-double every night, logging 12 in his last 14 outings.

Towns is averaging 11.9 rpg, with 8.8 defensive boards per game, so he should dominate this matchup on the glass and snag another double-double vs. the Thunder, who rank near the bottom of the NBA in rebounding since the All-Star break.

The matchup vs. the Thunder is a favorable one for 3-point shots; the opposition's starting SGs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (44.1%).. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the New York Knicks.. The New York Knicks have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jokic has dished out Over 11.5 assists in four straight contests and nine of his last 11, while averaging a league-leading 10.8 dimes per game this season.

The Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors are 20th in points against per game (118.4) and 23rd in field goals allowed per game (43.9) since the All-Star break.

Jamal Murray is averaging a career-high 25.5 points per game, and he’s in the midst of a major heater right now. Murray has averaged 27.1 points across his last 16 outings, including 84 points across his last two games.