NBA Picks

The Thunder just covered the 15-point spread in back-to-back games against the Nets and Wizards. They’ve also won by an average of 24.6 points against the 76ers across the last three meetings. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.. The 76ers will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from competing against the 6th-speediest tempo away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers rank 6th-best in in the NBA with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

With Cade Cunningham sidelined, the Detroit Pistons need an all-hands effort filling that hole on offense. Ausar saw his touches increasing alongside his shooting activity. He finished just 4 for 10 for eight points over 25 minutes in a one-sided win against Golden State. Thompson has been on a minutes restriction since returning from a sprained ankle earlier this month but with Cunningham out and L.A.’s high-octane offense on deck, Detroit needs his defensive and offensive output. Player forecasts all sit north of 9.5 points from Thompson with a ceiling of 13.3.

The Pistons have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Detroit Pistons have played at the 10th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 20 games.. The Detroit Pistons are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays today from competing against the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).

Paolo Banchero is very clearly operating as a point forward in this Magic offense right now, but he still isn’t being priced like it in the assists market, so we’re going back to the over once again. Banchero is averaging just over 12 potential assists per game over his last five, which really stands out when you’re looking at a line of 5.5 with plus money on the over. He’s facing the Pacers, and this sets up as a drive-and-kick clinic, with Banchero consistently finding shooters for wide-open jump shots. Indiana has struggled significantly with allowing paint points and shots at the rim, which should lead to over-helping and late rotations in a panic on Banchero’s drives—opening up plenty of passing lanes and assist opportunities. There’s also strong potential for Banchero to rack up assists in transition, especially when he pushes the ball himself off defensive rebounds in this matchup.

Desmond Bane has cashed the Over in four of his last seven appearances, and he has played better at home, averaging 22.5 PPG compared to 19.5 on the road. Most notably, he’s averaged 24.5 PPG against the Indiana Pacers this season, who are losers of 16 straight contests.

The fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.. The Heat will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 10th-speediest tempo away team in the league over the last 20 games (the San Antonio Spurs).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 6th-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.. Over the last 24 games when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Spurs, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Miami Heat's lackluster 31.2% rate of successful threes rates 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games.. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting SFs have tallied 8.6 points per game (lowest in the NBA) against the San Antonio Spurs, identifying this as a hard matchup for offensive performance.

The Hawks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2026. The gap in form is undeniable, with Atlanta ranking 1st in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Memphis at 25th. The Grizzlies have dropped 10 of their last 11, including five straight double-digit road losses. Atlanta’s last 13 wins have come by an average of 17 points, and with playoff seeding tightening up, don't expect them to take their foot off the gas.

As a team, the Memphis Grizzlies have been poor at drawing fouls when playing away from home: 7th-worst in the league this year, drawing a lowly 21.9 foul shot attempts per game.. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

I had absolutely zero hesitation hitting this number—this is my favorite prop on the board for Monday. Reed Sheppard has stepped into the starting lineup in place of Tari Eason and is now running the point, initiating a ton of the offense. In his last game against the Miami Heat, he dished out 14 assists on 21 potential assists, and now he draws a Chicago Bulls defense that lacks both point-of-attack resistance and rim protection—two things that are critical for slowing down a playmaker like him. In two-man actions with Sengun, Bulls guards will be forced to chase over the top because of Sheppard’s lethal jump shot. That opens up everything: his ability to snake the dribble, force Jalen Smith to commit, and create easy looks—whether it’s pocket passes to Sengun or drop-offs to Amen Thompson in the dunker spot. At +128 for over 5.5 assists, this line feels way off—I have it priced closer to -225.

The Rockets are the second-most methodical team in the Association, and they can dictate pace against the Bulls, who play fast and loose on offense. Houston struggles to cover big spreads, though, so I like that narrative to manifest in another Under, despite the lower total.

Immanuel Quickley is priced at +115 for over 6.5 assists, and we’re definitely hitting that number—I have it closer to -155. Quickley is on the second night of a back-to-back, but he didn’t log heavy minutes in the first game, as the Raptors were blown out by the Suns. His projected minutes here are also slightly below his season average. He’s facing a Utah Jazz team that has ruled out all of its primary rim protectors due to surgeries, clearly leaning into the tank. This is a young defensive unit that’s slow to rotate and offers virtually no rim protection on the back line. Quickley won’t need to do anything spectacular—this really comes down to his teammates. Jakob Poeltl and the wings should have an easy time converting his potential assists at the rim, with plenty of uncontested layups and dunks available due to blown rotations.

Ace Bailey has averaged 22.0 points per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 7.2 more than he's averaged overall this season at home.. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have compiled 23.9 points per game (highest in the league) against the Raptors, making this a favorable matchup for offensive performance.. The Utah Jazz have played at the speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games.. The Utah Jazz have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Toronto may be a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a colossal 4.5 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Raptors are the visiting team (6th-most in the league).

Podziemski has topped 10 points only once in that span after averaging just shy of 20 points in the first seven games of the month. A lineup of stingy opponents has worn down the Warriors guard, with five of the past six contests coming against Top 11 defenses. The Dallas Mavericks, however, are a welcome break. The Mavs are 25th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Podziemski is getting the minutes and touches to top his scoring total, with most projections flirting with 16 points tonight.

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 119.4 points per game comes in as the 6th-best in the league over the last 5 games.. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Portland has been dominant early, ranking 2nd in 1st half net rating and point differential over the last 10 games, while Brooklyn sits dead last in both categories. These teams just met a week ago in the exact same back-to-back, while coming off a loss spot that the Blazers are in tonight. Portland led by 24 at the half in that matchup. Add in Portland’s 3rd-ranked defense versus Brooklyn’s last-ranked offense over the 10-game span, and this sets up for another lopsided first half.
 
 
 

This year, opposing starting PGs have shot 29.8% on three-pointers (3rd-worst in the league) against the Portland Trail Blazers, designating this as a hard matchup.. The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the league as the visting team with just 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.

The Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Clippers.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA playing at home with just 8.2 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.